Campaign 2012 Miscellany

Let's check in on the Clintonite conspiracy to take down the Lightworker and keep Bubba Big Dog the only two term Democrat since FDR...Mort Zuckerman takes to his column to tell you that the economy still sucks.

Also, let's got to the NBfPB videotape - all the way back to February - to see what I said about how this campaign might play out:

2012 Election is Close Until Sep-Oct When Obama Blows It ala McCain in 2008: Obama's political skills are awesome, but his political instincts are terrible. He will do quite egregious things to please his base (wow! as if on cue). He will run neck and neck with Romney/Ryan until he blows it with a policy gaffe that conspicuously reminds voters what an amateur and/or liberal fascist he is. The gaffe could even be a Clintonite engineered self-destruction conspiracy.

Not dead-on and not quite a bulls-eye, but damn close (DAMN close) if this latest "You didn't build it" rant gets the traction that the Romney campaign is working hard for it to get.

And then there is this from the NBfPB videotape of a more recent vintage:

While I predicted that Obama would meltdown almost on the day that he took office, we sit on the cusp of his re-election battle and he has stubbornly hung on to stay in contention, at least superficially.  So I am making another prediction, actually more of an update, I guess, to my original meltdown trajectory.  So here goes.  The Obama presidency/campaign/phenomenon will shortly implode.  Yes, "implode", as in spectacularly fail and wind up in ruins.

I'm not claiming "nailed it" on that one yet, we have potential - the economy is still a mess, that gaffe, and the world looks like a bloody mess.

UPDATE:  Ha!  Wouldn't you know it...trudging through the archives I stumble upon this, which has some Zuckerman and some DB prognostication all rolled into one...

American Business Can See the Light at the End of the Obama Tunnel

We haven't heard from Mort Zuckerman, the Democrat who has been highly critical of Obama's economic policy for quite awhile, in a long time. Mort is back to tell us that the economy is still bad.

I have maintained, and I believe my position is stronger than ever, that Obama has lost the business community lock, stock, and barrel, Democrats and Republicans alike. Some businesses, aside from making the rational decision not to hire and create jobs, have even actively avoided hiring so as not to given Obama and the Pelosicrats any credit for for anything.

The US economy simply can't recover with Obama in office - he has solidified his reputation as a Chicago-style economic bully and he is still at this point actively sticking it to business while he makes phony gestures at enhancing US competitiveness. Business no longer has any confidence or interest in "doing business" with the Obama administration.

The finish line, however, is nearly in sight. This Bloomberg poll shows Obama in trouble. American business has taken the approach to wait the Obama years out and they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, they are not going to screw it up by changing the game plan now by making big moves in the next year and a half, and I also suspect that this dip in the polls will get the corporate cash flowing into the Republican candidates' coffers. Nothing greases the skids like an incumbent's vulnerability.

Will Both NYC Tabloids Endorse Romney?

The New York Post has endorsed Mitt Romney.  No shocker there.  And totally irrelevant.  Romney will not win New York State no matter what.  But it will be interesting to see how NYC metro's other tabloid paper, The Daily News, endorses.  The Post is our conservative Murdoch-owned tab and the Daily News is our liberal Zuckerman-owned tab.  But Mort Zuckerman has been scathing and relentless in his criticism of Obama's economic policies for pretty much the last three years.  If Mort's tab endorses Romney it won't matter to the outcome in NY State but it will speak volumes and take alot of the wind out of Obama's sails.  Stay tuned.

Romney Shocks With Actual Mojo...?

So Romney's speech was pretty darn good.  You should check it out.  Couple things.  This vindicates, I think, Spengler's impressions, and to some extent mine because Romney never made me kvetch like so many other conservatives who temporarily came down with a liberalesque whining virus.  Principally, however, I said that conservatives and libertarians are gonna like Romney alot more once he raises a campaign kitty that will be able to take on Billion Dollar Barack (or even Not Quite a Billion Dollar Barack).  The money is important, but enthusiasm is important too.  So, it's nice to see actual evidence that Romney might find some actual, inspiring mojo.

I very much like the three-pronged approach: 1) the presidential, above the fray air (because the guy is actually presidential); 2) the Reaganite Hope/Optimistic Themes ("dust off those 'Help Wanted' signs" sounds alot like Morning In America but with specificity on jobs); and 3) the dismissiveness of the Lightworker as a bit of a joke, b/c, well, he is.

One final thought.  Yesterday, I got my fifth consecutive issue of American Rifleman in which nearly every printed editorial word was a call to arms to defeat Obama this November.  The NRA estimates that there are 20 million gun owners that aren't registered to vote.  That is amazing to me, but who am I to question that.  If the NRA is successful at whipping up a decent chunk of those folks, and by all accounts they are trying mightily, and driving them to the polls, then Obama is toast.  Gun sales figures would indicate that the NRA's GOTV efforts could be successful.  People are already voting with their dollars, it's not a stretch to imagine that they will vote with their votes too.

UPDATE:  I have chronicled well the sharp criticism of Obama's economic policy leveled by Democrat businessman and media mogul, Mort Zuckerman.  My friend at SayAnythingBlog, Bat One, takes up the duty again today.  Remember how we saw, putatively exhausted/angered with Bush, the emergence of "Obamicans" in the 2008 election?  So, an interesting question:  Will Zuckerman lead a vanguard of business-minded 'Romneycrats'?  Hmmm....

UPPDATE:  Almost forgot this one - on the day after Romney comes out swinging and makes the case that we have to move on from Obama's "false promises and weak leadership", the man who I have said will be Treasury Secretary under a President Romney takes to the pages of the WSJ Op-Ed pages to say that Obama's budget math is screwy and disastrous.

Zuckerman Unloads on Obama...Again

I've stopped counting how many utterly scathing op-eds that Democrat businessman and publisher Mort Zuckerman has written criticizing the Obama economic program.  I think it's like 10.  Anyway, here is the latest.  Pretty grim, pretty scathing.

More Pro-Obama Junk from CNBC

I'm simply amazed that the MSM can print stuff like this with a straight face.

Twice as many business executives around the world say the global economy will prosper better with President Barack Obama than with Mitt Romney, according to a poll out Friday. 

This is sheer poppycock.  I talk to business executives all the time.  I am in the business of talking to business executives, and nobody I speak to says that Obama is good for the economy.  Nobody.  Some folks that  I speak to like him, many do not like Republicans, but no one says the economy will prosper because of Barack Obama.  No one.

But notice the qualifier, the survey reveals that it is foreign executives who feel this way.  Of course, look how good they run their economies.  American executives, not so much.  Cue Mort Zuckerman.

Democrat Businessmen Howling Louder

When big-time Democrat(!) mucky-muck after big-time Democrat(!) mucky-muck tells you that your approach to the economy has been wrong, it should say something. Buffett, Immelt, Zuckerman, Dimon, etc. Now, it's Barry Diller. Sorry fellas, a little too little, a little too late.

I saw it all coming. I told you capital would flee...and it has.

American Business Can See the Light at the End of the Obama Tunnel

We haven't heard from Mort Zuckerman, the Democrat who has been highly critical of Obama's economic policy for quite awhile, in a long time. Mort is back to tell us that the economy is still bad.

I have maintained, and I believe my position is stronger than ever, that Obama has lost the business community lock, stock, and barrel, Democrats and Republicans alike. Some businesses, aside from making the rational decision not to hire and create jobs, have even actively avoided hiring so as not to given Obama and the Pelosicrats any credit for for anything.

The US economy simply can't recover with Obama in office - he has solidified his reputation as a Chicago-style economic bully and he is still at this point actively sticking it to business while he makes phony gestures at enhancing US competitiveness. Business no longer has any confidence or interest in "doing business" with the Obama administration.

The finish line, however, is nearly in sight. This Bloomberg poll shows Obama in trouble. American business has taken the approach to wait the Obama years out and they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, they are not going to screw it up by changing the game plan now by making big moves in the next year and a half, and I also suspect that this dip in the polls will get the corporate cash flowing into the Republican candidates' coffers. Nothing greases the skids like an incumbent's vulnerability.

Doom and Gloom From the Experts

Over at SayAnything, avid NBfPB reader Bat One, picks up on a report out of Royal Bank of Scotland - hardly crackpots - that minces no words: doom and gloom are warranted. You won't get much of an argument out of me, I've been saying that we are skirting a Depression by the skin of our teeth but that we could well be headed there due to egregious policy mistakes (here, here, here, here, here, here and here). Obama and the Pelosicrats have done almost everything wrong in the sphere of economic policy and they have succeeded in beating the animal spirits of the US economy into a coma. And we are powerless, to wit we stand only a small chance of a reprieve from the latest policy blunder only due to the death of a 92 year old man. Without such an intervention of fate, a last minute add-on $19 billion bank tax would be sailing onto Obama's desk to be signed into law, representing just one more blow to the economy that we can ill afford. This wounded beast of a Congress and administration is thrashing about wildly, still able to take hunks of prosperity out of our hides when it connects. Hang on tight.

UPDATE: It is worth remembering what Nobelist Robert Mundell said would happen when we raise taxes on dividends and capital gains...nose dive.

UPPDATE: Allen Meltzer sums up nicely what I have been saying on this blog for almost two years now, Obama and the Pelosicrats have gotten nearly everything exactly wrong on economic policy - the stimulus was never going to be anything more than an expensive waste, our leaders have absolutely chilled the entrepreneurial spirit with both legislation and rhetoric, and tax and fiscal policy is sucking resources out of the private economy. They've done, literally, nothing right. Romer, Summers, Bernstein, Goolsbee, Furman...the whole sorry lot have botched it to the point of malpractice. If it was the politics then they should have resigned in protest.

UPPPDATE: I almost forgot that Obama-supporter and voter, Mort Zuckerman has been mincing no words for ahile now about Obama's economic policy program. Niall Ferguson makes an appearance too. Recent reports have Dick Fischer talking about how "regime uncertainty" hurts job creation. There is a chance that these voices are just now coming to the surface and will be absorbed and acted upon by the White House and Congress. Just a chance mind you. My belief is that these voices, if they've even gotten through the highly cloistered walls of officialdom, have been saying this for some time and the White House has simply ignored them because 1) they simply don't jibe with their idealogical bent or 2) they actually don't think that the terrible jobs picture will hurt them in coming elections or in 2012.

Barone Charitably, and Mistakenly, Exonerates Summers and Romer

Michael Barone takes an admirable stab at the Obama administration's misreading of the economy. He thinks that the very smart economic team of Summers and Romer missed the difference between a classic business cycle recession and a financial panic-induced recession. This is a highly perceptive shot at it, as I myself have talked about this interpretation as all the difference in formulating investment decisions, but I think that Barone is off the mark. First, I don't think that Romer and Summers are all that smart - and when I say "not smart" I am not denying that these people are highly intelligent, I am saying that they were unsuited to the task. These were highly intelligent people unable to see what was going on a) because of their disciplinary biases, b) their perch in a top-down Democratic administration, and c) their disconnectedness from basic economic activity. They had multiple disadvantages that impeded their perception that they could not see , and that is why I think that they cannot be considered smart. Numerous people sussed out the essence of the financial crisis and the impending recession, and even offered advice, but the administration's economic team was blind to it all. Blindness is not a characteristic of smart operating. For example, here the administration wagered its future on the stimulus and the pumping of a trillion dollars into the economy and yet the putative geniuses Summers and Romer let the POTUS traverse the country spouting the rankest anti-business rhetoric we've heard since the days of "malefactors of great wealth." So a trillion dollars got flushed out into the economy (to dead people and bridges to fat pensions) while a trillion dollars of potentially productive capex got hoarded - a wash. A complete and utter wash and nobody told Obama, "Stop" or "Cool it." Not smart. Very dumb, actually. I won't even talk about ObamaCare. There is no way that Romer and Summers could have thought this would help, and yet they remained silent. If they didn't know the uncertainty itself, let alone the dead weight loss of compliance costs, would weigh heavy on the tenuous economy, they could hardly be considered smart. I could go on, but the point is made, the Obama administration didn't misread the economy, they didn't care. Yes, they had some Keynesian, old liberal hands who were predisposed to see the economy through a demand side lens and who overestimated the importance of the role of government, but they made fundamental mistakes which indicate that they weren't basing their program on sound economics.. They were ignoring reality and steamrolling over economic prudence in order to enact a once in a generation progressive policy dream. "Focusing like a laser on jobs" therefore can be considered one of the many great lies of the Obama presidency. They were never focused on jobs, never. The only focus was on their desires, their role in the change that they've been dreaming about for decades. Barone tries mightily, but I imagine even he is too much of an insider and a gentleman to call this what it is - a great big lie. A miss it is not, for if it was an innocent miss, Summers and Romer are guilty of malpractice.

UPDATE: Just to add, this is why I think savvier Obama supporters, like Mort Zuckerman, left the reservation alot sooner and did so voluntarily. He saw what was going on and he has his reputation in the private sector to worry about.

My Meltdown Blueprint Looks Like a Solid Call

Just for fun let's go back to the original DB blueprint of Obama meltdown predictions. So that's how it happens. I think there is plenty of evidence that the media is slowly dismantling its supportive scaffolding around Barack Obama. Now the evidence that the never-loyal hangers-on are dropping off (remember Obama really only rented loyalists, he had no deep connections going into his campaign). I think Carville's rant over the BP spill response and Mort Zuckerman's numerous scathing diatribes against Obama's economic policy are evidence that the Clintonista's are free to drop unbending loyalty to Dear Leader. Now, we have Ed Rendell says that The One might have a primary challenge. That's confirmation folks. So my blueprint is looking pretty darned money.
All of this, of course, leads to the key discussion of Obama's viability in 2012. Many seem to think that Obama is easily re-electable and that anyone else can only be considered a long shot. I disagree and I think there are three paradigms that one can use to analyze Dear Leader's chances of being a two-term President. The first paradigm is one that I have discussed at length, which is discerning the state of the nation from some time-tested metrics that have a good record of determining an incumbent's electoral prospects - namely unemployment and gas prices. I have already nailed the 10% unemployment prediction and I am standing by the $4 gas prediction - Obama will see this toxic economic tandem at some point before the 2012 election and history teaches that his electability will likely not survive such an environment.
The second framework in which to analyze his 2012 chances is to look at the demographic coalition that formed to deliver him the win in 2008. He won on the back of 1) huge black turnout, 2) dominance among the young and independents, 3) a solid swing to him from the business community, and 4) Republican apathy and failure to turnout. Clearly, each one of these phenomena will not be repeated to the same degree in 2012, if not fully reversed. I believe blacks will not turn out in great numbers in 2012. Their historic moment has been achieved, the passion and excitement has faded and their turnout will revert to historical norms. The polls are clearly showing that Obama has lost independents and, as I have highlighted, the terrible economic prospects for America's voting-age youth are dismal and likely to dampen the youthful passion that benefited Dear Leader in 2008. On point three, the business community loathes this administration, full stop. He'll get no support here. On point four, they won't make that mistake ever again. For all the putative squabbling, leadership vacuums, and lack of focus, the one thing that Republicans, Republican-leaners and Republican-sympathizing Libertarians can now agree on - if you're caught sleeping come election time, you get statist, big government progressivism run amok and you lose liberty and prosperity in big chunks.
Finally the third and least compelling paradigm is the historical preference of American voters for executives with actual executive experience, so of Governors over Senators. Once in a while this pattern breaks and it did in 2008, but there is a reason we as a nation prefer not to put Congressional leaders in the Oval Office...we value executive experience. We dabbled in 2008 and took a gamble on breaking from this historical pattern. It is fair to say to date that the gamble has not worked out well, making historical reversion much more plausible by virtue of solid reasoning.

Granted, all this could change drastically in two years, so stay tuned...

UPDATE: What did I say just a few lines up about Republican-sympathizing Libertarians? Steve "Vodkapundit" Green is kind of a bellweather for libertarianism and he says (I'm paraphrasing) "No flights of fancy this time around folks, vote for the most electable Republican. That Libertarian Party candidate can wait for less crucial times."

Obama Racking Up Impressive Roster of CEOs Who Think He Is Clueless

Another CEO rips Obama and his Ivy League Economic Disaster Squad. Add Marcus to Farr, Seidenberg, (big time Dem) Zuckerman, Immelt, Dimon, Diller, Otellini, Wynn and Fred Smith (and Buffett IMHO). Let's remember, these guys have an incentive not to speak out - the downside is much worse than the upside - and yet they are doing it anyway. American business has been the prosperity creating envy of the world for decades and Obama has alienated, near universally, this massive, job-creating machine. So dumb, so destructive, and so unnecessary - my definition of tragic.

CEO Summit Charade

Bloomberg News puts a ridiculous spin on Obama's CEO Summit today into the title of its coverage - "Obama Meeting CEOs Shows Business President Who Delivers Gains". All the usual sycophantic CEOs get quoted as to how lovey-dovey they are now are with the President, who now apparently loves business. Of course, crony capitalist poseur Jeff Immelt leads the list, there is, after all, no charade that he will not go along with these days. Of course the truth here is, just as in the tax issue, Obama has his back to the wall and is doing this because he has to, not because he wants to. At least Bloomberg gives some nod to the many CEOs who see through the charade. Mort Zuckerman sums it up nicely, "The president's relationship with the business community has not improved" and Ivan Seidenberg delivers the delicious backhand compliment, praising Obama for "a willingness to learn." Translation: the dumb ass is finally coming around. (And if you know anything about Seidenberg, you that that is exactly what he is thinking.)

UPDATE: This was Obama's entire purpose in hosting this event, he wanted to say it so he can refer back and say he said it in order to combat the (truthful) accusation that he is anti-business. The other soundbite from the CEO Summit was that Obama...get this...wants ideas. He's two years in to his term, we were led to believe he has Buffett and Volcker at his beck and call, his entire (clueless) economic team has turned over, but he wants ideas??? My Bullshit Meter is beyond redlining. He doesn't want ideas. He wants to deflect this kind of stuff.

and a footnote...how lame are Eric Schmidt and David Cote? These guys are always at every damn Obama publicity stunt and they've probably been to a zillion meetings that we don't know about. Do they still have real, constructive ideas to give Obama that they have not yet shared with him? Puhleeze. They are the last two remaining O-Bots left in the Fortune 500. Note that Jim Owens of Caterpillar was not there, he clearly won't let himself be a tool of Obama again.

UPPDATE: The Daily caller has the honest take.

I'll Say It Again: Obama Is Cooked (from the Inside)

Well folks, I've been saying it (and saying it, and saying it, and saying it, and saying it).  Here is the original exposition of the theory:

Obama has been told it's over. He will not be given the keys to the Democratic Party's future and be allowed to own the vast apparatus of the party's traditional assets for decades to come as an all-conquering two term President. His presidency is in caretaker mode. No, not as Peter Beinart posits in his latest nitwittery, where Obama is the caretaker of a declining America, but rather where the Clintonites are the caretakers of a declining Obama.

The Clintons will simply not allow Obama to be the second and reigning two-term Democrat President since FDR and thus hold the keys to the Democratic Party.  An admixture of ego and a responsibility to keep the Democrat Party strong is driving Bubba and Hill to softly (for now) undermine Obama and ease him into a cushy retirement.  Don't believe me?  Ask yourself why Bill Daley was the source of all the WaPo's damaging exposes of O's leadership?  Ask yourself why Mort Zuckerman sounds like a Tea Partier with his frequent and no-holds-barred critiques of O's economic policy.  And ask yourself why Obama's fundraising has struggled and he's had to resort to $3 raffle tickets (hint: the big donors are Clinton people). 

And now, comes, well, more of what we know to be true...Bubba hates and disdains the Lightworker.  Obama has made mistake after mistake, and precisely on the heels of what most see as an egregiously cynical flip-flop/pander/election gambit (despite the media's best attempts to spin it as a bold, courageous move), this sentiment from Bubba hits the airwaves??? 

Compared to what Obama faces in the Clintons, Mitt Romney is a cute puppy dog.  Look for more kicks while Obama is down from here until November. 

The Great American Jobs Machine Is In Neutral

In light of today's employment report I am reprising, in full, a post from June 2011.

American Business Can See the Light at the End of the Obama Tunnel

We haven't heard from Mort Zuckerman, the Democrat who has been highly critical of Obama's economic policy for quite awhile, in a long time. Mort is back to tell us that the economy is still bad.

I have maintained, and I believe my position is stronger than ever, that Obama has lost the business community lock, stock, and barrel, Democrats and Republicans alike. Some businesses, aside from making the rational decision not to hire and create jobs, have even actively avoided hiring so as not to given Obama and the Pelosicrats any credit for for anything.

The US economy simply can't recover with Obama in office - he has solidified his reputation as a Chicago-style economic bully and he is still at this point actively sticking it to business while he makes phony gestures at enhancing US competitiveness. Business no longer has any confidence or interest in "doing business" with the Obama administration.

The finish line, however, is nearly in sight. This Bloomberg poll shows Obama in trouble. American business has taken the approach to wait the Obama years out and they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, they are not going to screw it up by changing the game plan now by making big moves in the next year and a half, and I also suspect that this dip in the polls will get the corporate cash flowing into the Republican candidates' coffers. Nothing greases the skids like an incumbent's vulnerability.

 It's only a few months, business want to know if they will continue to have to deal with Obama's anti-business/jobs policies or Romney's pro-business/jobs policies.  That is why it is fantasy to expect anything other than limp jobs numbers from here to Election Day.