Well, the stock market is hitting all-time highs
. It goes without saying that such a result has a handful of factors, but I am, after many years in this business, a big believer in the influence of the policy environment on stocks. When I say "policy environment" I mean just that - the prevailing mood, direction and results - of the policy-making apparatus. Rarely do I mean a particular politician, although there are times when a politician so dominates the environment that you can speak of that politician as affecting markets. Barack Obama is such a politician. He has so dominated the policy environment, not through numerous legislative accomplishments, but through his Chicago Alinskyite gangster form of governing in addition to his embodiment of the worst elements of the Democratic caucus, which I call the Obamacrats. The Obama administration's governing tenure is both a legislative disaster for the economy but more so a behind-the-scenes policy-making disaster. So much of the policy environment that our economy has to deal with happens beyond the headlines deep within the executive branch. The regulatory onslaught, the policy uncertain, even the legal uncertainty (see Chrysler) of having the Lightworker's gangster government target you have weighed heavily on the economy.
I have argued here before that the Obama presidency is over as far as major policy accomplishments are concerned and that this is good for the stock market
. There will be no more economy crushing progressive wet dream legislation coming out of Washington DC. This has been true for some time and is true today despite the media's desperate assistance to get immigration reform passed. However, now it appears that there is some light at the end of the tunnel on the regulatory front as well. Businesses have had some success in pushing back on regulatory depredations
and it appears they will continue to fight Obama's second term regulatory war on business. Businesses of many stripes have the confidence to fight back
and play for a new, post-Obama day. So, Obama 2.0, if it isn't a lame duck, round-the-clock scandal-a-palooza, will likely be a war of regulatory punch and counter-punch, fought to a stalemate.
That explains a good portion of why stocks are rising. Obama is over. Business fear very little further harm will come from this administration, anticipate that Obama will fade away into the history books, and can start planning for a better policy environment.
I happened to be out for a few drinks with my deeply-embedded Washington DC-based source and I tested this theory. My source is a go-to guy for political analysis, risk assessment and raw scuttlebutt. He signed on to my theory as well-reasoned and well-founded. He says that Obama is a completely spent force in Washington DC.