Wednesday, June 07, 2017

I Will Be Right About Musk Someday Soon

I've laid down my markers before, in 2015 and 2016...

Is the "magic" wearing thin...?

Time will tell.

UPDATE:  Your company posts terrible quarterly numbers, bolstering the bear case, so what do you do?  Talk about overpopulation.

Friday, June 02, 2017

Repeat After Me, Again: China Is Not, Will Not Lead on Climate

Lots and lots of dumb shit commentary in re Trump's Paris pull-out out there, but I'll focus in on what I know.  Here the dumb that I want to address:

Trump Cedes Climate Policy Leadership to Xi With Paris Accord Exit

This is a good time to reprise what I wrote previously about China's energy policy.  Go here to read it in full, but the basics are this:  China cares not one shit about "climate change", China is embracing any and every energy source and potential future energy source out of STRATEGIC PRUDENCE (yes, I'm shouting).  China wants to play with it all.  It is expanding use of coal with abandon, it is securing access to oil through loans, exploration and quasi-colonization of poor but emerging oil-rich nations, and...BIG is spending billions to fortify its maritime dominance in waters under which lie one of the greatest untapped HYDROCARBON energy sources - methane hydrate. Yeah, and they're doing wind and solar too.

China wants to grow, get rich and dominate...or at least not be dominated.  As such it will need lots of energy and it makes sense to establish beachheads in energy sources and technologies that may or may not emerge as the sources of the future regardless of their putative climate-friendliness.  

One tactical manifestation of this strategy is that China is displaying a phony climate consciousness to secure cooperation and access on technology that is developed outside of China.  It is saying "Hey man, this climate change stuff is scary, could we look at those patents and could you teach us how to build that cool climate thingamabob so we could build it too?"  China is getting a cheap future energy hedge by pretending to care.