Why the Hell Not...2010 Predictions!

Many bloggers are offering their predictions for 2010, so I figured why the hell not...after all some of my 2009 calls were pretty good (Copenhagen, 10% unemployment, Obama's unravelling, NY's tax receipts dry up, the "stimulus" wouldn't work).

Many of you already know of a few of my standing predictions:
- Iran gets bombed
- Obama sees a major unwanted cabinet level resignation (Napolitano doesn't count)

Here are some new ones (there are many easy ones I could list, but I will only make the bold ones here):
- Gen. David Petreaus quits, making obvious first move toward run for President in 2012
- Either California or New York declares bankruptcy
- Venezuela invades Colombia
- ClimateGate II is revealed
- ObamaCare passes and Texas responds w/federalist driven anti-ObamaCare bill sparking constitutional crisis
- Minor world leader is assasinated (three likelies: Assad, Calderon, Mubarak)

I expect I will go 3 for 8, 4 at best.

What Do They Say About Great Minds...

If you didn't see it, this Shebly Steele piece is not to be missed (I almost missed it, but thankfully it was flagged by fellow Steele fan, Don Luskin).

Money quote: "Mr. Obama won the presidency by achieving a symbiotic bond with the American people: He would labor not to show himself, and Americans would labor not to see him."

Steele talks of "the sophistication of seeing what isn't there rather than what is." Sounds alot like "delusion", a theme offered up by another great thinker of our modern public discourse...

PS - If you're reading this Luskin, I've been toiling away for five years hoping to attain the rank of Junior Unindicted Counter Co-Conspirator. Can I get my badge already?

UPDATE: SCORE!!!

My 2010 Plan

Increase (in no particular order):
- Thankfulness
- Hugs for kids
- Hugs for wife
- Carbon footprint
- Laughs
- Good wine consumption
- Patience
- Charity
- Wealth
- Neatness
- Biceps
- Reading time
- Wife's jewelry collection

Decrease (also, in no particular order):
- Waistline
- Crabbiness
- Bad wine consumption
- Wasted time
- Taxable Income
- Selfishness

Cue (and Screw) the Race Hustlers

Where they could last election day, voters sent a message about what they wanted to happen in their communities. Most notably, by electing Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie, the voters of Virginia and New Jersey voted to stop the ever-expanding blob of government egged on by corrupt politicians in bed with public sector unions. Less notable, but no less of a shocker was the win in Westchester County, NY by Rob Astorino over long-standing corruptocrat Andy Spano. Astorino isn't even in office yet, but he's starting out well by cleaning some house, so naturally, the forces of the left are already on his case with their catch-all smear weapon...racial diversity. Astorino's appointments aren't even completed and yet the racial hustlers are already braying. So here is what Astorino ought to say to Rev. Mulraine: "I was elected to stop the tax and spend madness that gave Westchester County the highest property taxes in the nation and a budget larger than 87 countries, so find me some people of color and/or women who can help me take a broadax to the bloated and corrupt Westchester County government and reduce its size by 25% and I'll gladly put them on my team."

I doubt Rev. Mulraine cares to genuinely seed Astorino's team with those types of minorities, and, frankly, I doubt he knows any such people. Furthermore, anyone from Mt. Vernon has a lot of bloody nerve lecturing anybody else on how to run a government. This is a sideshow, Astorino needs to stay focused and do what the voters elected him to do. If he does, much larger responsibilities await.

Republicans Must Not Fall for the Deficit Feint

This is the most important editorial that any sitting or aspiring Republican politician can possibly read. The deficit commission is a trap. This is what liberals do, they expand government recklessly and then start talking tough on deficits in order get conservatives to go along with closing the deficit caused by that enormous spending with tax hikes. The deficit isn't the real problem, the spending is the real problem. The successful Republican candidate of the future will not worry about deficits but will slash spending (and not the rate of spending increases, but the actual dollar amount of spending) and do it with a broadax, not a scalpel. Chris Christie has the right idea. Slashing the size of government by 20% should be the starting point for any aspiring Republican candidate for Congress, Governor or Mayor of a large city.

Hydrocarbon Miscellany

With Copenhagen officially a bust and the credibility of the AGW science in shambles (thanks Russia!), the Saudis feel it's a good time to splash out $400 billion (with a B) on developing more hydrocarbons.

Oh, and budget strapped California cities are turning to the only budget elixing tool left in the tool bag...oil! Drill, drill, drill will keep the pensions of municipal workers nice and fat for years to come. Meet the new alignment! Sorry green rubes, sweet pensions trump Gaia everytime.

Now It All Makes Sense - Baucus Edition

Finally!! There is an explanation for Max Baucus's idiocy, which I have been diligently chronicling since 2006!

Now, I know that we easterners should not talk, but really, Montanans...you can't find anybody better to send to DC?!?!?!

Easy Call

Noted bank-run instigator, who previously urged people to withdraw their money from banks and thus the economy, now wants banks to lend with abandon injecting money into the economy. If you're a bank, who do you listen to, your regulator or a Senator who never shuts up?

Huh??

First:
Copenhagen, Denmark (CNN) -- President Obama said Friday that the United States and Russia are close to forging a new nuclear disarmament treaty "in a timely manner."

Then:
Russia: New Nuclear Missiles To Be Developed
Stratfor Today »-->December 24, 2009
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said his country will develop a new generation of nuclear missiles to protect its national interests, Iran’s Press TV reported Dec. 24. In an interview with state-controlled television channels, Medvedev stated that the missiles will increase efficiency of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Medvedev’s comment came after Moscow said it successfully tested a ballistic missile that struck its target across the country in the Russian Far East.

2010 Prediction: Iran Explodes, Sinking ObamaCare

Here is an interesting tidbit that speculates on the possibility of Massachusetts voters saving us from ObamaCare. Perhaps. Honestly I have an alternative speculation that is every bit as likely as a Republican Senator from the Bay State - Iran will save us from ObamaCare. Or more specifically, the situation in Iran will blow up, simultaneously occupying Obama's attention and making him look utterly daft. The resulting blow to his credibility will fatally damage ObamaCare.

Follow along. I have said for awhile now as far as Iran goes, it's on. While the diplomacy isn't over, it has failed and a military strike is inevitable (unless the people of Iran topple the regime first). The next question is "who will do it?". Naturally, Israel has been preparing for a strike against Iran for years now. I think Israel was waiting, first, to see who won the US election and, second, given that it was Obama, to take the measure of the new American President. Suffice it to say that Israel has sized up Obama and found nothing on offer, even after some appeasement of his leftist pecadillos. So the US is out of the hunt. So will Israel act alone? If need be yes, but hardly is that the only option. Caroline Glick offers an interesting comparison to the 1956 Suez Crisis when Israel teamed up with other world powers without the United States. So, will Israel do it? I think, yes. I think certain conditions are set and a red line is being approached - the delivery of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Iran. Iranian military are currently in Russia training on the S-300 and Russia has declared that there is no reason for them not to deliver the system. Delivery of S-300 units is a red-line for the Israelis. A close source, working in Israel, has told me that the Israelis have gone into that subtely detectable, eerie "mission integrity protection" demeanor, aka 'something is up'. So, I've upped my probability to 80% that 1H 2010 sees an Israeli attack on Iran. If it happens, Obama will be seen as the guy who not only failed to unclench any fists but got a couple middle fingers thrown in for good measure. Furthermore, if this goes down with Israel helped by other powers, like France for instance, the US will look like a piker on the world stage. Nonetheless, Obama will still have to (and by virtue of his ego, want to) devote his time to the issue, inevitably positioning the United States of America as a day late and a dollar short on the issue, which is good for another 5-10 points down in his approval ratings. (To be fair, George W. Bush deserves much credit for the "day late" aspect, but the buck no longer stops with him, it ain't his problem.) And that is just if things go smoothly. If Iran causes mischief, like attacking Saudi oil infrastructure or blocking the Hormuz or launching proxy wars, it will have its negative effects on the world and US economies. By not actively putting US resources and capabilities into the planning mix to mitigate Iran's economically detrimental mischief, the economic impact will be on Obama's hands as well, and he can't take much more bad news on the economy.

So, here is the scenario: Israel attacks Iran in February with the help of France and a few others over Obama's objections. The Iranian regime lashes out causing several months of global anxiety over the economy and the prospect of wider war. ObamaCare stalls while things play out. Ultimately, a weakened Iranian regime collapses at the hands of its people and the world avoids a nuclear armed apocalyptic regime, no thanks to Obama, whose approval plunges to all-time lows as ObamaCare comes out of conference, which won't actually be the normal legislative conference process, but a back room deal concocted by Pelosi and Reid. The bill (and the Democrats) will have grown that much more unpopular and ObamaCare will be voted on secure in its status as a corrupt and illegitimate fraud, the result of a something more authoritarian than democratic. Will it pass to then be sent on to the desk of a President with 20% approval ratings who let world events spiral out of his control? No.

So that is the scenario. What is the probability? 15%.

Oh, and Merry Christmas!

Did Bush Set OPEC's Demise in Motion?

Watch this video about how Iraqi oil production could one day blow up OPEC and remember that George W. Bush was a blooming idiot that couldn't find his way out of a box. The history remains to be written here...

Obama Would Never Politicize the Census, Would He?

No doubt this is why Obama wants ACORN to help out with the upcoming census.

UPDATE: Losing some House seats is the least of New York's problems right now though. Apparently, we teeter on the brink of insolvency. Not effective insolvency (we've been there for years now), I'm talkin' real insolvency. As in dead broke. Busted. Tits up.

Wherefore the Need to UnTARP?

As per usual, in today's WSJ Holman Jenkins delivers an incisive and clear analysis of government meddling in the economy and its ill effects, but in this particular instance I think the estimable Mr. Jenkins falls a little short. His basic thesis is this: in balancing the need to stabilize the banking system with its reluctance to take over one or more large banks that would have gone bust - a reluctance born of the fear of political meddling in the newly government-owned bank or banks - Paulson & Co. gave us the TARP program, which wound up spreading political meddling throughout the banking system, to healthy and unhealthy banks alike. The implication is that the geniuses behind TARP, Treasury Secretary Paulson being the putative jefe of financial poobahs, failed rather stunningly in underestimating the venality and recklessness of the likes of Barney Frank and Chris Dood, posterboys respectively for the feared political meddling . I think this is wrong. I don't accept that Paulson was too dumb to see the woeful influence these Sausage Factory poobahs would try to exert. I think Paulson figured that politicians would caterwaul but would ultimately be walled off from doing too much damage via the legislative process while the financial system healed.

Fast forward to the recent events that highlight the race to unTARP, the unnecessary dilution of shareholders at giveaway prices in order to get out from under TARP and the unsuccessful mating dance between Robert Kelly of BNY Mellon with Bank of America. The situation clearly is a mess but it wasn't for Barney Dodd that it is so. The real fly in the ointement came in the form of pay czar Ken Feinberg who is a creature of prolific czar appointer, Barack H. Obama. Should we really hold Paulson accountable for not foreseeing a new - putatively moderate, Volcker and Buffett-endorsed - President taking office and unleashing a wave of unaccountable czars with union pedigrees to lord over with heavy hand every industry where the federal government has injected aide? I think not. TARP was imperfect, yes. But it was good enough for government work in a tight spot. It's flaw was to allow enough of an opening for a statist-minded executive to come barrelling through that opening. Is that the flaw of the TARP designer or the statist President?? I'm giving the TARP crew a pass on this one.

Chris Christie Is A Genius

Want smaller government? This is how it is done folks. Gee, where have I heard of this approach before...?

Contrast pudgy Christie to this. Pretty clear who the girly man is. Plus this would explain why Ahnold has been blowing so much sunshine up Obama's ass as of late.

Friday Night Freakin' Lights

The best high school football team in the land is from...New Jersey.

All Together Now: "OK, It Was a Mistake"

Again, I will state that this is happening is not the interesting story. That anyone expected it to be otherwise is the interesting story. Soon, it will be an open admission from all quarters - "we lost our heads." At least some of us did. Not me though.

BAYONETS!

Fix Bayonets!

Sorry Al

Gore that is.  I think this is why the ice caps are melting and the oceans are getting hotter.

Revisiting: Obama's Stumbles Melt the Market Up

It is worth revisiting the inverse relationship between President Obama's political strength and the stock market. The market has been melting up (over 25%) since July after it consolidated its gains from the bottom in March. I don't think it is a coincidence that this roughly tracks a rather noticeable leg down in Obama's approval ratings starting in June and July. Mind you, approval ratings are one thing and political effectiveness is another, but in this case it appears that the slide pertains to both. On substance, Obama's signature issue - healthcare - is in serious jeopardy and his two other major issues - cap and trade, card check - are dead for now. Other policy goals of his administration are relatively tangential to the economy, but these large initiatives loomed large for the business community and the economy.   Superficially, he has damaged himself considerably with his ham-fisted defense of the non-stimulating stimulus, the patently unserious "jobs summit", petty demogoguing of bankers and his desperate parachuting into Copenhagen where his chance of success was almost nil from the start. Of course these are not shocking developments; this is the process of recognizable, but somehow overlooked, flaws starting to come to the surface.  The market still has alot to contend with, but it seems to be coming to the realization that the severe headwinds that a successfully implemented Obama agenda would pose to the economy will not materialize, and it can go forward knowing that markets will be relatively free to sort out issues as they usually do.  Markets can deal with imbalances and excesses, but but a severe lurch toward bad policy is much tougher to get around.  The stock market seems to saying that the worst of the bad policy scenarios are off the table.

Russia Openly Challenging Climate Science

Early on in the emergence of the ClimateGate scandal, I suggested that Russia was behind the active effort to discredit the climate science in a covert kind of way. Now it appears that Russia is out in the open challenging the science.

Tiger and Obama

This gets it right, we were had by both men. But unlike Elin Nordegren, we the people don't get a nice settlement, we get the bill. In the case of Obama though, we didn't buy a plausible story, we wanted to be deceived, we ignored the writing on the wall. And now we have a President who goes before the country and spouts the most unserious bullshit - like this - we have ever heard without batting an eyelash. Furthermore, unlike Elin, we deserve it.

Breaking: Congress Still Clueless

Wow. Let me repeat for the second time in a week: Oh. My. God.
The "Buy American" provisions of last January's non-stimulating stimulus bill were roundly criticized both at home and abroad as needlessly destructive and for it numerous specific distortionary effects and unintended consequences. Our two biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, have slapped back at us over these dumb provisions. China is now paying us back with new trade barriers after we didn't heed their warnnigs to ratchet back the protectionist urge. That protectionism is economically counter-productive is one of the most agreed-upon tenets of modern economics. It was part and parcel of the stimulus bill that is clearly a failure, and yet...and yet... it looks like the lower chamber of the Great Sausage Factory wants to double down on this idiocy.

Free the Bankers!!

While our president publicly bashes bankers and erroneously pins the financial crisis on them, they are paying back taxpayer funds loaned to them with interest, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are asked the taxpayers for more bailout money above and beyond the $400 billion they've received. America ought redirect their putative anger at the bankers to those that "rolled the dice" their money on social engineering.

The Totalitarian Next Door

Of course, the tyrannical urge behind...progressivism/liberalism...whatever it is called these days.

Oddly, check out this apropos book review.

The Media and Two-Term Presidents Named George

Seeing this post, in which the Good Professor touts John Gibsen's book, put me in mind of a little history lesson about two guys named George.

Let's Issue 535 Pink Slips

Take a look at this chart again and then read this. We need 535 new members of Congress. Literally. We have to start over, completely. Wipe 'em all out.

Larry...Puhleez

Larry Kudlow is getting all "wee-wee-ed up" over the ever so modest and temporary tax relief that President Obama has proposed in his latest jobs proposal, going so far as to call Obama a supply-sider.  All I have to say is..."Larry, please, get a hold of yourself.  Do I have to remind you how wrong you were previously to see any supply side anything in candidate Obama."  Obama is no supply-sider and will never will be - a one year tax break! - this is an Axelrod ploy and you know it, so quit blowing sunshine mon frere.

China Fires Back

China fires back at US in Obama-initiated trade war. Some steelworkers will inevitably lose their jobs. Nice work.

To Europe, Again, Quit Your Bitching

Upon hearing the news that certain European governments and populaces are feeling snubbed by Obama, let me state, again, how deaf my ears are to their bitching...(I'll save you the trouble of clicking through)

Hey Europe. Stop Bitching. You Asked for This.
Hey Brits, you helped foist this loser on the world. You piled on heaping quantities of bile and sundry distortions about America during the George W. Bush years and fomented a caricatured version of Euro-weenie anti-Americanism that set the stage for Barack Obama to don the mantle of world-healing savior. The "redemptive" message would have been laughable had you in Europe been measured, rather than unhinged, for the past six years. So, I don't want to hear your bitching. You may have your legitimate beefs, but we here across the pond have to survive these next four years praying our liberties remain intact and our economy doesn't crater, largely because of your hyperventilating about George W. Bush and imperial America. So shut your pie holes and take it like men. We have to.

Obama To Jawbone Bank CEOs

President Obama is set to tell bank CEOs that he wants them to lend more among other things. Check out the story here. I was struck by this bit though:

The lending issue irks some in the industry. “The White House’s political people like [senior adviser David] Axelrod tell us to lend more,” said one banking official. “But the regulators are saying the exact opposite. They’re saying, ramp up your capital ratios, and if you see default risk on the horizon, cut back on lending.”

I told you about this a year ago, but I have updated information. Yesterday, I spoke with a contact who works for one of the largest banks in the country, considered to be one of the best managed banks in the country (this bank is based in the upper midwest and has a big investor who is a very rich guy and who lives in Omaha). She tells me that her bank is lending and is prepared to lend alot more, just that there are few takers. Nobody is expanding. Can't push on a string, folks.

Corzine's Parting Gift to NJ: $200 Million More Debt

Jerseyans voted for fiscal sanity last month in jettisoning Jon Corzine, but the booted Gov chose to ignore the message and, in what amounts to a raised middle finger to the Garden State's citizens, the state is going ahead with a $209 million bond floatation over the opposition of Governor-elect Chris Christie. When voting the bums out isn't even enough, the system is broken.

MORE: And residents of Westchester County, NY, after voting out taxaholic corruptocrat Andy Spano in November, might still get stuck with his 5% tax raise even as he leaves the scene. Not very responsive democracy, if you ask me.

OMG

Oh. My. God. Here I stated that the Obama administration was pursuing economic policies that were "the equivalent of taking away the ditch-diggers' shovels, handing them spoons and then hiring more ditch-diggers." Now, via PJTV's Trifecta, we actually have the President advocating an explicit policy of LOWER PRODUCTIVITY!! (yes I am yelling). This is the road to poverty, the road back to 19th century. But as I have said many times, this is what we deserve for being so deluded and/or asleep as to the fate of our country.

Oh, and watch the whole thing to see the Trifecta gang take our economically illiterate POTUS to the woodshed.

Obamanomics: Setting New Standards of Dumb

Remember President Obama's "Jobs Summit"? I know, I know, it was so long ago...like last Thursday or Friday, can't remember myself. Anyway, if you thought that this little event might not be a serious endeavor but perhaps a piece of political theater, look no further than the big headline today, not 48 business hours later - the EPA is going to regulate, well, almost everything.

How many times have I said on this blog that American businessmen/women large and small are scared sh**less and hiding underneath their desks given the sheer tsunami of stifling, destructive statist interventions planned by the socialists in Congress and Dear Leader? Many times. And yet one of the largest regulatory encroachments into the broad economy in our history was announced just days after the so-called "jobs summit." Not that there was much of a glimmer of job growth anyway, but this will absolutely freeze businesses in their tracks waiting to see how bad it can get. Astoundingly dumb. Setting new standards of dumb.

UPDATE: Obama's latest plan to boost the economy and create jobs is out today, and it is...totally lame. Maybe they are betting that they can propose this weak stuff and when the economy recovers on its own, they can take credit and then propose more of this stuff because "it worked." That is a very big bet, essentially an "all in" bet on a second term. With businesses frozen in their tracks for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the uncertainty regarding the EPA's new powers to regulate almost everything, that is going all in with a weak hand.

UPPDATE: I focused on the EPA insanity, but TigerHawk picks up on anti-jobs policy in Obama's Labor Department. As I said, they are using all the tools and attacking American business on all fronts. if you think the economy is going to get back to normal given this policy assault, well, you're crazy.

Peak Oil Is Garbage...but It Still Sells

I've gone after the Peak Oil silliness here at NBfPB many times. Duke economist Mike Munger upgrades the indictment from silliness to idiocy. A well deserved promotion (or is it a demotion?). Peak Oil always seems to get revived at the onset of commodity booms, mostly by money managers promoting their commodity investment strategies.

Little Bit 'O Red Ink

Remember what I said - that by mid-year 2010 Americans are going to be shocked, truly shocked, about the state of our country's finances. Well, we're two months into the fiscal year.

****** I WAS RIGHT !!!! **********

The Russians did it.  I made this call last week.  Motivation, Method, Perpetrator.  I nailed it.

The Audacity of Hedge

I hinted that an Obama visit to the COP15 Copenhagen global warming confab could be highly embarassing to our Dear Leader. Well, now he's decided to delay his trip. He'll be swooping in later after an "emerging consensus" builds, which means, of course, he'll show up if it is not a total disaster to claim some credit. If it starts to look like a big embarassment, I'm sure he'll beg off. This could be quite a problem. Will the new Messiah, the Lightworker, the Nobelist Peace-Bringer, the most profound thinker since, well, ever be the last rat off the Climate Change ship?

Miscellaneous Updates

I said "No BRICs, No Deal", assuming the BRICs would be a proxy for the rest of the developing world. But now the wheels really seem to be coming off - major developed countries are pulling back from global warming policy initiatives. We've already seen the Aussies bow out. Now, Canada is out with news that it ain't agreeing to anything until the Big Dog jumps first. And in what could be nothing or could be a sign that climate change policy is indeed dead or dying, the Brazilians, all of a sudden, feel confident enough to up the ante on their $175 billion dollar investment in hydrocarbons.

In other news, remember I waxed conspiratorial that it would be an easy and perhaps logical gambit against Iran's threats to ramp up the storage of oil on supertankers. Such tankers, sitting quietly far from the Gulf with tens of millions of barrels of oil or gasoline would be quiet useful if Iran found itself bombed and wanted to lash out in the Gulf. Well, hmmmmm...

My View Is Now Conventional Wisdom

Glad to see that what I've been saying for about a year now it going mainstream.

California's Doctors Come Out Against ObamaCare

California's doctors oppose Obamacare.

No surprise there.

Emissions Caps Hit a BRIC Wall

As expected...

India, China, South Africa, Brazil: Greenhouse Gas Emission Goals Opposed
Stratfor Today »-->December 2, 2009
India, China, South Africa and Brazil are opposed to the proposition of setting a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050 and other goals being presented at the global climate conference in Copenhagen, Reuters reported Dec. 2, citing unnamed European diplomats who have seen a document by the four nations. The document reportedly also says that India, China, South Africa and Brazil oppose a target of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times and the setting of a goal of a peak in world emissions by 2020.

India, China, Brazil. Exactly the countries (among others) I've been saying wouldn't let western neuroses, and now perhaps western intellectual fraudulence, stand in the way of their economic development.  Babs Boxer can bitch and moan all she likes about e-mail theft, the end result is that key developing countries see the bottom line - that the moral authority of Western science is worth nothing.  Or at least now they have a convenient excuse to oppose vigorously something they never wholly bought into in the first place.  No BRIC countries, no deal.  Period.  And only suicidal western powers would impose meaningful emission caps on themselves in the absence of a global agreement.  We've all been saved from the carbon-free jail cell that was waiting for us.

Does Romer Understand How Ridiculous She Looks?

ADP is reporting that we've lost another 170K jobs. Meanwhile Christina Romer takes to the pages of the WSJ to 1) make the requisite laughable defense of the stimulus disaster, 2) continue to blame the Bush administration for a deficit that pales in comparison to what her boss is cooking up, and 3) spout some twaddle about incentivizing homeowners to make their homes more energy efficient. We've been over 1 & 2, suffice it to say that Romer should save herself the embarassment. As for 3...Great, let's spend a couple billion to insulate every last damn home in America (my brother-in-law would clean up - he's in the insulation biz), then what? Democrats seem to have said the words "green jobs" so often that they actually believe this is some sort of time-honored economic formula for prosperity, when it is actually the equivalent of taking away the ditch-diggers' shovels, handing them spoons and hiring more ditch-diggers. It is unbelievable that this clan can't shake their statist instincts in the face of persistent, overwhelming evidence that their micro-management is the problem.

I sure hope Romer is just a mouthpiece at this point and not a serious influence on policy. Otherwise we'll see that 12% unemployment rate I predicted very soon. Anyway, far be it for me to curse the darkness without...you know...so how about this or asking David Farr how we might create some jobs.

UPDATE: As expected, Obama's "jobs summit" looks to be more for show than for results. Typical.

Delicious Working Theory: Climategate Was Premeditated Murder by...

I simply can't resist the fun/mental exercise of mapping out a whacky-and-yet-plausible conspiracy theory centering on the East Anglia CRU Climategate scandal. The hooks that got me thinking about this further are 1) naturally, the devastating timing, right before the Copenhagen summit and 2) the nature of the hacking. Let's start with 2. This was no small thing, from the exposure of base motives to lifting the veil on the sad state of the technical apparatus; could this really have been, say, an attempt to embarass Phil Jones or some other such character? Doubtful. More plausibly the perpetrator's intent was to take down the whole AGW edifice. Timing? Well, the timing was perfect to cast a pall over Copenhagen, but Copenhagen already had a mini-pall over it. The timing was exquisite, however, to ream one of the last standing true-believers of any significance on the politcal stage - Barack Obama - who was called on, and typically answers these "come hither, Oh Messiah" calls, to rescue Copenhagen. Was it just an accident of history that a deep, comprehensive hacking of data from a critical AGW locus was accomplished and released to the world prior to the drama of a Copenhagen summit complete with gracing by Obama? Mere happenstance? Um...it's possible.

In all the coverage, I have not read one story (granted there aren't many of them b/c it is MSM blackout time!) that probes the nature of the hacking. Some are speculating that it could have been an inside mole and not an outside hacker. Fine, but the more critical angle is "why?" If it was an inside job then one option is an honest scientist whose pangs of conscience spurred him/her to collect and release data of a devastating nature. Rather than fight on the side of truth from within, this person decided to take down the whole edifice, including his/her job very likely. I'm not sure this is likely and I am certain it is no fun. If it was an inside job and not the scenario just mentioned, that means UEA-CRU had a mole planted within their walls, which really means it was an outside job. So, whether an inside-outside job or an outside-outside job, let's go with the outside job theory.

Who would want to discredit climate change to its very core? Um, oil-producing nations...? That is a good bet. Saudi? Maybe. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand for years to come in order to avert social collapse? Venezuela? I guess. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand... and have a history of international cyber shenanigans? Nobody coming to mind? How about a nation that, in addition to all that, would love to have any last, slight vestige of power that Obama retains obliterated post haste, so they could conduct foreign policy with impunity...bingbingbingbing...Russia! I knew you'd get it eventually.

So there is the basic outline - Russia has conducted a state-sanctioned, premeditated decapitation strike against the global AGW policy movement in order to avert potential permanent, long term demand destruction for crude oil. This is seriously fun, no? Anyway, chew on it and stay tuned!

The "Pound Sand" Coalition: Pretty Much Everyone Now

In this self back-patting post, I boil down my long running analysis of the prospects of a new global climate change treaty into the concise cold, hard reality: The world will not derail the slow but undeniable march of rising living standards for a speculative theory that only a few Western elitists believe in.

As the UEACRU Climategate scandal grows, people are speculating whether this will signal the end of climate change action as a policy goal. In theory no, because elitist globo-nannies can hardly be expected to recant, stand down or otherwise admit defeat. However, in practice, it is indeed dead. To my cold, hard bottom line above, you can now append "and looks to be a complete fraud at worst and a scientific project that ought to go back to the drawing board at best." The likes of China, India and Brazil weren't on board before. Now I can't imagine any nation that isn't European or the US would even consider talking about climate change.

UPDATE: Sheesh, if the Aussies - lovable green nutters that they are - are out, the movement's progress is indeed dead in its tracks. They've got a multi-year climb back, if they can even do it.

Climategate just like AIDSGate

Remember folks, this is not the first time that the crusading globo-nannies have had to cheat and lie in order to 1) get your attention, and 2) lull you to sleep while they conspired to limit your liberty and siphon off your money.