Delicious Working Theory: Climategate Was Premeditated Murder by...

I simply can't resist the fun/mental exercise of mapping out a whacky-and-yet-plausible conspiracy theory centering on the East Anglia CRU Climategate scandal. The hooks that got me thinking about this further are 1) naturally, the devastating timing, right before the Copenhagen summit and 2) the nature of the hacking. Let's start with 2. This was no small thing, from the exposure of base motives to lifting the veil on the sad state of the technical apparatus; could this really have been, say, an attempt to embarass Phil Jones or some other such character? Doubtful. More plausibly the perpetrator's intent was to take down the whole AGW edifice. Timing? Well, the timing was perfect to cast a pall over Copenhagen, but Copenhagen already had a mini-pall over it. The timing was exquisite, however, to ream one of the last standing true-believers of any significance on the politcal stage - Barack Obama - who was called on, and typically answers these "come hither, Oh Messiah" calls, to rescue Copenhagen. Was it just an accident of history that a deep, comprehensive hacking of data from a critical AGW locus was accomplished and released to the world prior to the drama of a Copenhagen summit complete with gracing by Obama? Mere happenstance? Um...it's possible.

In all the coverage, I have not read one story (granted there aren't many of them b/c it is MSM blackout time!) that probes the nature of the hacking. Some are speculating that it could have been an inside mole and not an outside hacker. Fine, but the more critical angle is "why?" If it was an inside job then one option is an honest scientist whose pangs of conscience spurred him/her to collect and release data of a devastating nature. Rather than fight on the side of truth from within, this person decided to take down the whole edifice, including his/her job very likely. I'm not sure this is likely and I am certain it is no fun. If it was an inside job and not the scenario just mentioned, that means UEA-CRU had a mole planted within their walls, which really means it was an outside job. So, whether an inside-outside job or an outside-outside job, let's go with the outside job theory.

Who would want to discredit climate change to its very core? Um, oil-producing nations...? That is a good bet. Saudi? Maybe. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand for years to come in order to avert social collapse? Venezuela? I guess. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand... and have a history of international cyber shenanigans? Nobody coming to mind? How about a nation that, in addition to all that, would love to have any last, slight vestige of power that Obama retains obliterated post haste, so they could conduct foreign policy with impunity...bingbingbingbing...Russia! I knew you'd get it eventually.

So there is the basic outline - Russia has conducted a state-sanctioned, premeditated decapitation strike against the global AGW policy movement in order to avert potential permanent, long term demand destruction for crude oil. This is seriously fun, no? Anyway, chew on it and stay tuned!