2010 Prediction: Iran Explodes, Sinking ObamaCare
Here is an interesting tidbit that speculates on the possibility of Massachusetts voters saving us from ObamaCare. Perhaps. Honestly I have an alternative speculation that is every bit as likely as a Republican Senator from the Bay State - Iran will save us from ObamaCare. Or more specifically, the situation in Iran will blow up, simultaneously occupying Obama's attention and making him look utterly daft. The resulting blow to his credibility will fatally damage ObamaCare.
Follow along. I have said for awhile now as far as Iran goes, it's on. While the diplomacy isn't over, it has failed and a military strike is inevitable (unless the people of Iran topple the regime first). The next question is "who will do it?". Naturally, Israel has been preparing for a strike against Iran for years now. I think Israel was waiting, first, to see who won the US election and, second, given that it was Obama, to take the measure of the new American President. Suffice it to say that Israel has sized up Obama and found nothing on offer, even after some appeasement of his leftist pecadillos. So the US is out of the hunt. So will Israel act alone? If need be yes, but hardly is that the only option. Caroline Glick offers an interesting comparison to the 1956 Suez Crisis when Israel teamed up with other world powers without the United States. So, will Israel do it? I think, yes. I think certain conditions are set and a red line is being approached - the delivery of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Iran. Iranian military are currently in Russia training on the S-300 and Russia has declared that there is no reason for them not to deliver the system. Delivery of S-300 units is a red-line for the Israelis. A close source, working in Israel, has told me that the Israelis have gone into that subtely detectable, eerie "mission integrity protection" demeanor, aka 'something is up'. So, I've upped my probability to 80% that 1H 2010 sees an Israeli attack on Iran. If it happens, Obama will be seen as the guy who not only failed to unclench any fists but got a couple middle fingers thrown in for good measure. Furthermore, if this goes down with Israel helped by other powers, like France for instance, the US will look like a piker on the world stage. Nonetheless, Obama will still have to (and by virtue of his ego, want to) devote his time to the issue, inevitably positioning the United States of America as a day late and a dollar short on the issue, which is good for another 5-10 points down in his approval ratings. (To be fair, George W. Bush deserves much credit for the "day late" aspect, but the buck no longer stops with him, it ain't his problem.) And that is just if things go smoothly. If Iran causes mischief, like attacking Saudi oil infrastructure or blocking the Hormuz or launching proxy wars, it will have its negative effects on the world and US economies. By not actively putting US resources and capabilities into the planning mix to mitigate Iran's economically detrimental mischief, the economic impact will be on Obama's hands as well, and he can't take much more bad news on the economy.
So, here is the scenario: Israel attacks Iran in February with the help of France and a few others over Obama's objections. The Iranian regime lashes out causing several months of global anxiety over the economy and the prospect of wider war. ObamaCare stalls while things play out. Ultimately, a weakened Iranian regime collapses at the hands of its people and the world avoids a nuclear armed apocalyptic regime, no thanks to Obama, whose approval plunges to all-time lows as ObamaCare comes out of conference, which won't actually be the normal legislative conference process, but a back room deal concocted by Pelosi and Reid. The bill (and the Democrats) will have grown that much more unpopular and ObamaCare will be voted on secure in its status as a corrupt and illegitimate fraud, the result of a something more authoritarian than democratic. Will it pass to then be sent on to the desk of a President with 20% approval ratings who let world events spiral out of his control? No.
So that is the scenario. What is the probability? 15%.
Oh, and Merry Christmas!
Follow along. I have said for awhile now as far as Iran goes, it's on. While the diplomacy isn't over, it has failed and a military strike is inevitable (unless the people of Iran topple the regime first). The next question is "who will do it?". Naturally, Israel has been preparing for a strike against Iran for years now. I think Israel was waiting, first, to see who won the US election and, second, given that it was Obama, to take the measure of the new American President. Suffice it to say that Israel has sized up Obama and found nothing on offer, even after some appeasement of his leftist pecadillos. So the US is out of the hunt. So will Israel act alone? If need be yes, but hardly is that the only option. Caroline Glick offers an interesting comparison to the 1956 Suez Crisis when Israel teamed up with other world powers without the United States. So, will Israel do it? I think, yes. I think certain conditions are set and a red line is being approached - the delivery of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Iran. Iranian military are currently in Russia training on the S-300 and Russia has declared that there is no reason for them not to deliver the system. Delivery of S-300 units is a red-line for the Israelis. A close source, working in Israel, has told me that the Israelis have gone into that subtely detectable, eerie "mission integrity protection" demeanor, aka 'something is up'. So, I've upped my probability to 80% that 1H 2010 sees an Israeli attack on Iran. If it happens, Obama will be seen as the guy who not only failed to unclench any fists but got a couple middle fingers thrown in for good measure. Furthermore, if this goes down with Israel helped by other powers, like France for instance, the US will look like a piker on the world stage. Nonetheless, Obama will still have to (and by virtue of his ego, want to) devote his time to the issue, inevitably positioning the United States of America as a day late and a dollar short on the issue, which is good for another 5-10 points down in his approval ratings. (To be fair, George W. Bush deserves much credit for the "day late" aspect, but the buck no longer stops with him, it ain't his problem.) And that is just if things go smoothly. If Iran causes mischief, like attacking Saudi oil infrastructure or blocking the Hormuz or launching proxy wars, it will have its negative effects on the world and US economies. By not actively putting US resources and capabilities into the planning mix to mitigate Iran's economically detrimental mischief, the economic impact will be on Obama's hands as well, and he can't take much more bad news on the economy.
So, here is the scenario: Israel attacks Iran in February with the help of France and a few others over Obama's objections. The Iranian regime lashes out causing several months of global anxiety over the economy and the prospect of wider war. ObamaCare stalls while things play out. Ultimately, a weakened Iranian regime collapses at the hands of its people and the world avoids a nuclear armed apocalyptic regime, no thanks to Obama, whose approval plunges to all-time lows as ObamaCare comes out of conference, which won't actually be the normal legislative conference process, but a back room deal concocted by Pelosi and Reid. The bill (and the Democrats) will have grown that much more unpopular and ObamaCare will be voted on secure in its status as a corrupt and illegitimate fraud, the result of a something more authoritarian than democratic. Will it pass to then be sent on to the desk of a President with 20% approval ratings who let world events spiral out of his control? No.
So that is the scenario. What is the probability? 15%.
Oh, and Merry Christmas!
posted by Donny Baseball at 10:41 AM
2 Comments:
I think you should get out of the prediction business!
I'm not in the business. I do this for fun. Go somewhere else if you want to hear something else.
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