Delicious Working Theory: Climategate Was Premeditated Murder by...

I simply can't resist the fun/mental exercise of mapping out a whacky-and-yet-plausible conspiracy theory centering on the East Anglia CRU Climategate scandal. The hooks that got me thinking about this further are 1) naturally, the devastating timing, right before the Copenhagen summit and 2) the nature of the hacking. Let's start with 2. This was no small thing, from the exposure of base motives to lifting the veil on the sad state of the technical apparatus; could this really have been, say, an attempt to embarass Phil Jones or some other such character? Doubtful. More plausibly the perpetrator's intent was to take down the whole AGW edifice. Timing? Well, the timing was perfect to cast a pall over Copenhagen, but Copenhagen already had a mini-pall over it. The timing was exquisite, however, to ream one of the last standing true-believers of any significance on the politcal stage - Barack Obama - who was called on, and typically answers these "come hither, Oh Messiah" calls, to rescue Copenhagen. Was it just an accident of history that a deep, comprehensive hacking of data from a critical AGW locus was accomplished and released to the world prior to the drama of a Copenhagen summit complete with gracing by Obama? Mere happenstance? Um...it's possible.

In all the coverage, I have not read one story (granted there aren't many of them b/c it is MSM blackout time!) that probes the nature of the hacking. Some are speculating that it could have been an inside mole and not an outside hacker. Fine, but the more critical angle is "why?" If it was an inside job then one option is an honest scientist whose pangs of conscience spurred him/her to collect and release data of a devastating nature. Rather than fight on the side of truth from within, this person decided to take down the whole edifice, including his/her job very likely. I'm not sure this is likely and I am certain it is no fun. If it was an inside job and not the scenario just mentioned, that means UEA-CRU had a mole planted within their walls, which really means it was an outside job. So, whether an inside-outside job or an outside-outside job, let's go with the outside job theory.

Who would want to discredit climate change to its very core? Um, oil-producing nations...? That is a good bet. Saudi? Maybe. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand for years to come in order to avert social collapse? Venezuela? I guess. How about oil producing nations that really really need robust and sustained oil demand... and have a history of international cyber shenanigans? Nobody coming to mind? How about a nation that, in addition to all that, would love to have any last, slight vestige of power that Obama retains obliterated post haste, so they could conduct foreign policy with impunity...bingbingbingbing...Russia! I knew you'd get it eventually.

So there is the basic outline - Russia has conducted a state-sanctioned, premeditated decapitation strike against the global AGW policy movement in order to avert potential permanent, long term demand destruction for crude oil. This is seriously fun, no? Anyway, chew on it and stay tuned!

Complete Wanker Spouts Rubbish!

...Man, I LOVE speaking British!

Since this guy is a Brit, I'll speak his language and call "Bollocks!" With a guy this zealous you can't argue that global warming (sorry, climate change) is a speculation and that the dread effects of climate change are the rankest form of computer-driven speculation. He's got the physical environment sussed and that's that, so you gotta go for the other flaws in his argument. There are many, but first, a nit to pick - I understand it is difficult for a Limey bloke to understand the finer points of us colonials' parliamentary machinations, but it was the US Senate that ripped up Kyoto. I know it is good for a pint at the pub on your editor's shilling to bash George W. Bush, but let's be prickly about the facts, justfor shits and giggles. Now to the nub, shall we? It would seem Freedland thinks that the US is somehow integral to Copenhagen's success and it would seem he thinks that the United States is somehow personified in Barack Obama. Barack Obama has little sway with world leaders (on top of his ever diminishing say with us 'mericanz) and it is not the US that is weighing the promise of Copenhagen down. The US is merely bowing to reality. Brazil is planning on spending $175 billion dollars over the next several years on hydrocarbon development. It's their space program. (Actually that number will go up given this recent find.) As we say here in America, "they are, like, sooooo NOT on board" with the whole restricting hydrocarbons thing. The Africans, too, are on the very brink of oil riches. Angola, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Egypt, Libya and a few others all have dreams of being the next Saudi Arabia. They'll only slow down if they get bribes, and frankly, no one expects that they'll honor any bribe. They'll take the money and drillbabydrill anyway. And then there are the Indians, who think this global warming stuff is a bunch of hogwash and wouldn't care even if it wasn't because they have a billion mouths to feed. Oh, and I almost forgot the Chinese! How could I forget the Chinese, who are traversing the globe, spending hundreds of billions and running entire African countries out of their back pockets if they have to just to get their Commie mits on the ungodly amount of hydrocarbons they'll need to feed and house their billions at a modest living standard. No rational and informed person thinks that these countries are going to vote to restrict the use of hydrocarbons, which is what Copenhagen is all about, but "Oh, but it's the big, mean United States that is dooming Copenhagen and thus us all! Save us Barack Obama! Save us!" says total wanker John Freedland. Have you ever heard such rubbish?

Climate Change: China Has Obama Right Where They Want Him

If you take this at face value, all I can say is that you heard it here first. This, however, could also be viewed as a savvy pre-emptive move on the part of the Chinese. They know that Western governments, the US in particular, are pining away for a perceived success (IMO a real success is impossible) and they can hold out the prospect of failure as a bargaining chip to secure very favorable terms for China. Last year at this time, it looked like it would be the Europeans that had the most riding on success at Copenhagen. Several European countries had already embarked on "greening" their economies, which in essence meant that they imposed inefficiency and uncompetitiveness on themselves, and they were looking to drag the rest of the world toward greater inefficiency with them to regain some competitiveness. A year later, after a pro-growth result in the German election and a nascent but fagile recovery emerging in Europe, leaders have backed off the importance of Copenhagen. Moreover, the Euros have been dumping the onus and responsibility on Barack Obama, setting him up to take the blame if the confab fails. Global warmism is already a big focus for loyal Obama supporters in the US and a major policy plank of his administration. Thus we are left with really only one major world leader who is significantly invested in a success at Copenhagen, Barack Obama. (I'm discounting Gordon Brown from this by virtue of his irrelevancy, although he needs a win, any win.) Furthermore that leader, recent events on the world stage have shown, is prone to make bad deals, to give tangible things up for promises and/or nothing at all or for the sake of appearances. The Chinese know this, and could be setting Obama up for making a deal that is very good for the Chinese regardless of how good it is for the US or the climate.

UPDATE:  Obama isn't going.  This is the one intelligent thing I've seen him do in months.  He isn't taking the bait and knows that there is no deal to be had, why should he go?

Odds Are Copenhagen Is Already a Bust

Todd Stern, US State Department Special Envoy on Climate Change, seems to think that the US and China can strike some totally awesome global warming deal in Copenhagen - the next big global confab of enviro-bureaucrats and busybodies - thereby getting the whole world on board for fighting global warming, sorry climate change. In other news, China is plunking down $1.7 billion and unknown future sums for access to one of the least enviro-acceptable hydrocarbons, Canadian tar sands. Oh, and don't forget all that drilling the Chinese are doing right at home.


Governments around the world are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on developing hydrocarbon resources, Africa wants bribes, India has said 'eat me poseurs,' and yet globo-ninnies like Stern are still trying to put a good face on Copenhagen. The world has just seen what it looks like when everyone stops consuming as much oil, and most countries don't like what they've seen. Give the Toddster points for optimism.

Spinning Copenhagen Has Started

Now that it is so transparently a bust, U.S. Energy Secretray Steven Chu is backing off the importance of the upcoming global warming - whoops, climate change - conference in Copenhagen, saying it is no big deal. Just three weeks ago, Copenhagen was "crucial to the future of humanity." Expect alot more frantic spinning as we get closer.

I tell you it is a great feeling to see these puffed-up elite ninnies so deflated over not being able to save us all from ourselves.

Media Starts to Cover for Warmist Agenda Crater

I predicted that the upcoming global warming confab in Cancun would be a bust (just like I predicted Copenhagen would be a bust), and now the media is providing the reality obscuring cover stories to spare the embarrassment. The jist of this Bloomberg story is that Cancun is just one step in a long process, contrary to the hype preceding Copenhagen, where that confab was our last hope, that the urgency couldn't be higher. Now that success (by their definition, mind you) will not be forthcoming, the urgency meme is out the window.

Climate Back Pat

I am giving myself a huge back pat for getting this one so dead to rights. The upcoming global warming pilgrimage in Copenhagen is a bust. I knew this exactly one year ago before the Poznan conference and explicitly called it in August. The problem is simply reality, not lack of leadership or hard work (believe me, the climate zealots are very hard at work intent on imprisoning us in their no growth hell), but cold hard reality. The world will not derail the slow but undeniable march of rising living standards for a speculaitve theory that only a few Western elitists believe in.

China's Biggest Investment in Fossil Fuels Yet??

China and Nigeria are negotiating a monster deal that could see the Chinese take control of 17% of all of Nigeria's proven oil reserves. This could be a $50 billion investment on the part of the Chinese. As I quipped in another post, China is not above running small African countries out of its back pocket if it has to in pursuit of energy supplies. Now, Nigeria is not small, but that just means that the Chinese have finished their warm-ups - they'll be taking a heavy hand in how things get done in Nigeria should they plunk down 50 large. Of course this news comes hot on the heels of many other large Chinese forays deeper in the energy world. And yet, somehow, we are supposed to believe that the world - which includes the Chinese - is going to come together, sing kumbayah, and save the planet in Copenhagen this December by limiting theusage of fossil fuels.

Remember folks, in the long run reality will trump this global warming nuttiness.

UPDATE: Apparently the Chinese want in on Uganda too. This is far from a comprehensive list, as it is only off the top of my head, but the Chinese have bought into energy plays in Brazil, Angola, Sudan, Madagascar, Canada, Vietnam, Venezuela, Iran, Egypt, and imminently, Nigeria and Uganda. The Chinese do alot of alternative energy stuff at home too, but given this roster of investments, I'm guessing it's either just for show or they have zero expectation that renewables and the like will get them to the promised land.

Obama's Terrible Day ... and NBfPB Saw It Coming

Wow, President Obama has just had a really bad day...

- We kicked it off this morning with the release of the unemployment figures - 10.2% - which highlights the impotency of the Democrats signature approach to the economy, the "stimulus" (where he did not lead, but gave Pelosi carte blanche)

- Then his crappy reaction to the Fort Hood massacre was branded "frightening insensitivity" by the usually compliant MSM.  In a second attempt to address the situation, he urges Americans to not see what is plain to see before their very eyes by not "jumping to conclusions" (kinda like he did when Sgt. Crowley arrested his buddy Skip Gates).

- The new Congressman from NY-23 that the administration boasted about helping win, is made to look like a scumbag and a Pelosi lap dog in less than a few hours of being shown in.

- China has labeled us "protectionist" which represents the final warning before we are in a trade war, one of the single most damaging things that can happen to our economy right now.

- His "jobs saved or created" talking point continues to be debunked as complete garbage.

- It looks like the vaunted Copenhagen confab on global warming is officially a bust.

- After touting the AMA's endorsement of his healthcare reform plans, the AMA reveals that it is riven with internal debate and may rescind its endorsement.

- His signature issue, healthcare reform (again where he did not lead but gave carte blanche to Pelosi), is sure to be forever associated going forward with the at-the-same-time laughable and horrifyingly outrageous prospect of jail time for citizens that fail to purchase health insurance.

I'm sure I am missing something too, but man-oh-man what a crappy day.

On the flip side, a pretty good day for me.  I've been warning that we were treading dangerously close to potential trade conflict with China.  A year ago, I said that a global consensus on climate change was unachievable.  From the get go, I've said the stimulus would do nothing for the economy and we'd have 10+% unemployment.  I walked my readers through how doctors would assess the current healthcare proposals unfavorably.  I've said to be on the lookout for raw, naked tyranny embedded in the healthcare reform that Democrats will eventually concoct.  Finally, I've more or less said on numerous occasions that, based on character and qualifications, Barack Obama was not only not fit to lead our nation but was patently destructive to our national character.  In foreign policy I said he would be feckless and easily rolled by world leaders big and small.  Given everything, I concluded that, on present course, the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States will go down as an accident of history,  a sort of once-in-a-generation collective national brain fart.

Today, frankly, was about all the vindication I could have asked for.

Huh??

First:
Copenhagen, Denmark (CNN) -- President Obama said Friday that the United States and Russia are close to forging a new nuclear disarmament treaty "in a timely manner."

Then:
Russia: New Nuclear Missiles To Be Developed
Stratfor Today »-->December 24, 2009
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said his country will develop a new generation of nuclear missiles to protect its national interests, Iran’s Press TV reported Dec. 24. In an interview with state-controlled television channels, Medvedev stated that the missiles will increase efficiency of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Medvedev’s comment came after Moscow said it successfully tested a ballistic missile that struck its target across the country in the Russian Far East.

Hydrocarbon Miscellany

With Copenhagen officially a bust and the credibility of the AGW science in shambles (thanks Russia!), the Saudis feel it's a good time to splash out $400 billion (with a B) on developing more hydrocarbons.

Oh, and budget strapped California cities are turning to the only budget elixing tool left in the tool bag...oil! Drill, drill, drill will keep the pensions of municipal workers nice and fat for years to come. Meet the new alignment! Sorry green rubes, sweet pensions trump Gaia everytime.

Revisiting: Obama's Stumbles Melt the Market Up

It is worth revisiting the inverse relationship between President Obama's political strength and the stock market. The market has been melting up (over 25%) since July after it consolidated its gains from the bottom in March. I don't think it is a coincidence that this roughly tracks a rather noticeable leg down in Obama's approval ratings starting in June and July. Mind you, approval ratings are one thing and political effectiveness is another, but in this case it appears that the slide pertains to both. On substance, Obama's signature issue - healthcare - is in serious jeopardy and his two other major issues - cap and trade, card check - are dead for now. Other policy goals of his administration are relatively tangential to the economy, but these large initiatives loomed large for the business community and the economy.   Superficially, he has damaged himself considerably with his ham-fisted defense of the non-stimulating stimulus, the patently unserious "jobs summit", petty demogoguing of bankers and his desperate parachuting into Copenhagen where his chance of success was almost nil from the start. Of course these are not shocking developments; this is the process of recognizable, but somehow overlooked, flaws starting to come to the surface.  The market still has alot to contend with, but it seems to be coming to the realization that the severe headwinds that a successfully implemented Obama agenda would pose to the economy will not materialize, and it can go forward knowing that markets will be relatively free to sort out issues as they usually do.  Markets can deal with imbalances and excesses, but but a severe lurch toward bad policy is much tougher to get around.  The stock market seems to saying that the worst of the bad policy scenarios are off the table.

Why the Hell Not...2010 Predictions!

Many bloggers are offering their predictions for 2010, so I figured why the hell not...after all some of my 2009 calls were pretty good (Copenhagen, 10% unemployment, Obama's unravelling, NY's tax receipts dry up, the "stimulus" wouldn't work).

Many of you already know of a few of my standing predictions:
- Iran gets bombed
- Obama sees a major unwanted cabinet level resignation (Napolitano doesn't count)

Here are some new ones (there are many easy ones I could list, but I will only make the bold ones here):
- Gen. David Petreaus quits, making obvious first move toward run for President in 2012
- Either California or New York declares bankruptcy
- Venezuela invades Colombia
- ClimateGate II is revealed
- ObamaCare passes and Texas responds w/federalist driven anti-ObamaCare bill sparking constitutional crisis
- Minor world leader is assasinated (three likelies: Assad, Calderon, Mubarak)

I expect I will go 3 for 8, 4 at best.

The Audacity of Hedge

I hinted that an Obama visit to the COP15 Copenhagen global warming confab could be highly embarassing to our Dear Leader. Well, now he's decided to delay his trip. He'll be swooping in later after an "emerging consensus" builds, which means, of course, he'll show up if it is not a total disaster to claim some credit. If it starts to look like a big embarassment, I'm sure he'll beg off. This could be quite a problem. Will the new Messiah, the Lightworker, the Nobelist Peace-Bringer, the most profound thinker since, well, ever be the last rat off the Climate Change ship?

Leftist Political Leader Has Oil Field Named After Him

Popular lefty politicians usually want hospitals, schools, roads, and sundry august institutions named after them to burnish their legacy. So it is a little strange, and yet refreshing, to see that Brazil's immensely popular former president has had his name affixed to an ... oil field. Brazil's massive Tupi oil field, that has spawned a not-to-be-believed gold rush of development of Brazil's oil sector, has been renamed "Lula". Every future hospital, school, road, etc. just may owe its existence to the vast national wealth created by tapping Brazil's oil deposits, so Lula must know that his name cannot be more at the center of Brazil's future as it is with this memorial. I guess lefties can appreciate the indispensability of abundant, cheap energy to economic growth and higher standards of living after all. Just goes to show you how in thrall our lefties here in the US are to a declinist radical green agenda that this would be inconceivable here. I said climate change legislation was doomed due to national greatness agendas that were based on oil wealth, but this is the perfect metaphor for what I was talking about. If only all those numbnuts at Copenhagen a few years ago had known that a massive oil field would be named after the left of center President of one of the world's largest and fastest growing economies, then we all could have saved ourselves alot of time, effort and heartache.

UPDATE: Apparently the global warming/climate change/climate chaos crowd is still gnashing its teeth over this stuff. Give it up guys, they're naming oil fields after lefty pols now! Get a clue, your agenda is sunk. Sunk as in rotting at the bottom of the ocean. Move on.

Green Euro Zealots Unfair to US's Dear Leader

I do alot of bashing of our less than amateur President on this blog, justifiably so in my opinion, but I will come to his defense in this instance. This is deeply unfair to him and a scandalous libel. The Europeans are blaming the failure of the world accepting their climate neuroses on President Obama as a matter of convenience because they cannot accept a) the preposterousness of their own desires, or 2) their own impotency to lead on the issue. The forces arrayed against the global warming (oops, climate change) zealots' desires to control us are too vast, too diffuse and too grounded in basic hard realities to be layed at the feet of Barack Obama. You can read my various analyses here. There is much much much to criticize Obama over, but his failure to make a success of Copenhagen is not a justifiable criticism. Still, I am enjoying the irony of Obama getting bitten by the forces of unreasonable, intolerant environmentalism.

Beer Tourism

This is a neat article (HT: Say Anything) combining two great activities of life, traveling and drinking beer. While the rankings are clearly subjective, one has to call into question the authors' judgment given some of the daft selections made. Burlington, VT is #4 and London, England is nowhere on the list. Simply daft. Unbelievably snortworthy. As much as I appreciate the nod to the Irish in selecting Dublin, a very good beer town, London is far and away a superior beer town, a giant among beer meccas offering astounding variety and quality. And Mexico City? Simply an awful choice. Yes, some Mexican beer is quite good and a coldie on hot Mexican afternoon is deeply satisfying, but Mexico City doesn't come close in quality and variety to be on this list. Here's my list:

1. London
2. Bruges (Brugge)
3. Munich
4. Amsterdam
5. Prague
6. Montreal
7. San Francisco
8. Sydney
9. Portland, Maine (Yes, I said Portland Friggin' Maine)
10. Copenhagen

Emissions Caps Hit a BRIC Wall

As expected...

India, China, South Africa, Brazil: Greenhouse Gas Emission Goals Opposed
Stratfor Today »-->December 2, 2009
India, China, South Africa and Brazil are opposed to the proposition of setting a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050 and other goals being presented at the global climate conference in Copenhagen, Reuters reported Dec. 2, citing unnamed European diplomats who have seen a document by the four nations. The document reportedly also says that India, China, South Africa and Brazil oppose a target of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times and the setting of a goal of a peak in world emissions by 2020.

India, China, Brazil. Exactly the countries (among others) I've been saying wouldn't let western neuroses, and now perhaps western intellectual fraudulence, stand in the way of their economic development.  Babs Boxer can bitch and moan all she likes about e-mail theft, the end result is that key developing countries see the bottom line - that the moral authority of Western science is worth nothing.  Or at least now they have a convenient excuse to oppose vigorously something they never wholly bought into in the first place.  No BRIC countries, no deal.  Period.  And only suicidal western powers would impose meaningful emission caps on themselves in the absence of a global agreement.  We've all been saved from the carbon-free jail cell that was waiting for us.