More Canaries

Bob Samuelson is no right wing nutter. He is, in fact, probably the most sane voice on matters fiscal in the Lamestream Media. So how can it be that today he pens a "We're Doomed" column? How doomed are we? Well, if Paul Ryan's Path to Armageddon Which Turns America into 17th Century Afghanistan does not quite address the problem, perhaps then it's a pretty damn big problem. Not a millimeter of column inches (that quaint measurement) is wasted in laying it all out. But no matter, Samuelson gets to the outcome right in the first paragraph - politics won't solve this, the bond market will, and the bond market's tender mercies will be gruesome. Gee, where have I heard that before? Notably, here, here, and here. Remember, this is a bet on human nature, not on the numbers - do you believe modern Western man drives his world into the abyss or does he pull back? On current evidence - Portugal as merely the latest exhibit submitted (Jerry Brown being the penultimate evidence du jour) - a one-way bet against abyss avoidance is a solid speculation. UPDATE: Bill Gross is short US debt. No surprise there.

Samuelson: Ryan Too Soft on the Elderly

Bob Samuelson is right.  Ryan's budget is too easy on seniors. 

I don't think we should throw granny off the cliff, but we should wheel her to the edge and let her stare into the abyss for a spell...

World Votes On America With Dollars: Thumbs Down

I usually pooh-pooh the guy as a loudmouth, but I have to say that I wholeheartedly agree with Cramer...
- Geithner is a disaster, but worse than that
- China has done Keynesian stimulus right, we have done it 100% wrong, and the world knows it. (UPDATE: Samuelson admits it.)

With China and the US pulling hard, the world economy could get moving, but only China is actually pulling. We are faking it. We have let the world down - 300 million hard-working, hard-spending, innovative, optimistic Americans have been told to hide under their desks, expect a tax beating, and get ready for massive energy regulation. Should be no surprise that they have gone AWOL.

UPDATE: Geithner gets some help (babysitting?).

Finally Someone Other Than Me: Stop Coddling the Elderly

"Stop coddling the elderly" says Bob Samuelson, the very not-right-wing economic columnist.

It has long been obvious that the 65-and-over population doesn't fit the Depression-era stereotype of being uniformly poor, sickly and helpless. Like under-65 Americans, those 65 and over are diverse. Some are poor, sickly and dependent. Many more are financially comfortable (or rich), in reasonably good health and more self-reliant than not. With life expectancy of 19 years at age 65, most face many years of government-subsidized retirement. The stereotype survives because it's politically useful. It protects those subsidies. It discourages us from asking: Are they all desirable or deserved? For whom? At what age?

Kinda like when I said that we are going bankrupt buying hip replacements for the richest cohort of people to ever walk the Earth.

We will self destruct if we run trillion dollar deficits by giving the wealthiest cohort of individuals to ever walk the Earth free artificial joints and unneeded retirement income, which is what Medicare and Social Security amount to.

I'm talking first principles.  Why do we do things?  At the basic level.  Why? 

Short answer:  AARP.  Once upon a time, they were a smallish lobbying group mostly representing an actual and somewhat deserving constituency.  Now, they are a near impervious back-room power player run by a bunch of professional lefty redistributionists with only a tangential motivation in serving their nominal constituency's best interests.

Will China and the iPad Save Us?

Bob Samuelson is worried about another Depression. Readers of NBfPB know that I am deeply worried about it too. We have two factors in our favor now though that go under appreciated. One, China. China is a massive growth locomotive that we didn't have in decades past and they can't be bothered with all the growth stifling horsepucky that we are indulging in here in the West. They are full steam ahead with no apologies (because the leaders will all get lynched if they do otherwise- it is a good motivator). Two, communication technology. Today, we know just how bad our leaders are screwing up and just how venal, feckless, or out to lunch they are in nanoseconds, whereas it used to take a long time for people to internalize just what poor quality of leadership inhabits the halls of power. Just as one small example, it takes barely seconds after Mayor Bloomberg makes a giganticly asinine statement for it to be all over hundreds of media outlets that reach numerous types of devices used by all walks of society. That makes our democracy more responsive (which is probably why Obama doesn't like it). Of course, we could avoid making the bad policy choices in the first place and we wouldn't have to fall back on the speculative backstops of China and a more responsive political system made so through technology, but that would be too easy.