More Canaries

Bob Samuelson is no right wing nutter. He is, in fact, probably the most sane voice on matters fiscal in the Lamestream Media. So how can it be that today he pens a "We're Doomed" column? How doomed are we? Well, if Paul Ryan's Path to Armageddon Which Turns America into 17th Century Afghanistan does not quite address the problem, perhaps then it's a pretty damn big problem. Not a millimeter of column inches (that quaint measurement) is wasted in laying it all out. But no matter, Samuelson gets to the outcome right in the first paragraph - politics won't solve this, the bond market will, and the bond market's tender mercies will be gruesome. Gee, where have I heard that before? Notably, here, here, and here. Remember, this is a bet on human nature, not on the numbers - do you believe modern Western man drives his world into the abyss or does he pull back? On current evidence - Portugal as merely the latest exhibit submitted (Jerry Brown being the penultimate evidence du jour) - a one-way bet against abyss avoidance is a solid speculation. UPDATE: Bill Gross is short US debt. No surprise there.