Funny That: Somali Piracy Down Without Addressing "Root Causes"

Maritime piracy is yet another scourge for which the namby-pambies of the world reflexively claim can't be addressed without addressing "root causes."  In Somalia's case, the ninnies focus on political stability in Somalia as the root cause that is the necessary condition for fixing the problem.  Sure, it'd be great if Somalia was politically stable, but that at best isn't happening in the short term and at worst it's a pipe dream.  In the meantime, illiterate bands of dirt poor Somalis are interrupting global commerce sometimes capturing $100 million ships with $200 million of oil. 

Well, after a sputtering beginning, where saner heads let the root causes crowd have too much of the say, we've gotten a handle on the problem using common sense and time-tested strategies and tactics.  Piracy off the coast of Somalia is way down and it had nothing to do with addressing the root causes, it was done raising the cost of piracy by introducing the prospect of failure, imprisonment and/or death. 

“The single biggest reason for the drop in worldwide piracy is the decrease in Somali piracy off the coast of East Africa,” said Pottengal Mukundan, IMB director.  The presence of international navies and security guards are the main factors"

International navies patrolling the waters and security teams aboard ships (translation: good guys with guns) have made a serious dent in the problem, and it needs to be noted that Somalia remains a politically unstable craphole.

Pirates Scoff at Civilized World

"A BW Shipping VLCC came under fire on Monday in what naval forces described as 'the longest range of a pirate attack off the Somali coast ever'.

Automatic weapons and rocket propelled grenades were fired at the 298,600-dwt BW Lion (built 2004) around 1,000 miles east of Somalia on Monday morning, EU NAVFOR wrote in a statement. "

Good thing that the civilized world got together to lick this problem...which is relatively easy to fix.

UPDATE: and the Chinese want to take over anti-piracy efforts...
China: Beijing Requests Lead Role In Anti-piracy Planning
Stratfor Today »-->November 9, 2009
"China has asked to take a leading role in coordinating international anti-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia, the South China Morning Post reported Nov. 9. Commander John Harbour, spokesman for the EU naval task force off Somalia, said China requested a chance to lead the monthly meetings held in Bahrain known as Shade -- shared awareness and deployments -- to plan and coordinate anti-piracy deployments. Harbour said a decision on the matter will be made at the next Shade meeting in early December."

Unsaid is that they probably think we are a bunch of weenies that don't know how to protect our interests...and they'd be right.

UPPDATE: Finally a decent idea...
EU: Spain Wants Blockade Of Somali Ports
Stratfor Today »-->November 12, 2009
Spain on Nov. 16-17 will call for EU foreign and defense ministers to concentrate naval forces on a blockade of three Somali ports that are used to launch pirate attacks, AFP reported Nov. 11, citing Spanish Defense Minister Carme Chacon.

Where have I heard that before?

Private Sector Looks to Profit Where Public Sector Fails

Anytime there is a real problem to be solved, private enterprise usually provides a solution.  In the instances where there are competitive solutions from the private sector and the public sector, the private solution is usually quicker, better, and cheaper than the government solution.  Case in point is maritime piracy, which is a scourge as old as seafaring itself but newly resurgent in the wake of a global epidemic of namby-pambiness and which costs global consumers $7 billion annually.  There is an age-old solution to this age-old problem.  There is even an effective stop-gap measure to contain but not eradicate the problem.  However both of these solutions doesn't meet with the very modern sensibilities of some market participants, thus the market need for non-lethal piracy deterrence.  As such the the navies of the world have been patrolling piracy-ravaged sea routes at enormous expense and have not been effective - piracy still occurs just outside the reach of international naval forces' watch or it has moved elsewhere. Ineffectiveness at enormous cost is an unsustainable solution, so one would expect a private sector solution to emerge, and perhaps it has...call this filling the namby-pamby market niche.

Piracy Update

Lately, there have been several interdictions of pirates in the piracy plagued waters of the Gulf of Aden. Here is one recent report. All of these reports have one glaring thing in common, no arrests were made. International naval forces catch pirates in the act of hijacking vessels, discover weapons and equipment used in hijackings...and then let the pirates go free. The effect is to deprive the pirates of a few thousand dollars worth of equipment whereas one successful hijacking probably earns a pirate crew $1-$3 million. The only conclusion is that we do not want to stop piracy. We are pussy-footing around with these pirates. Ideally, we should be sending them to watery graves, but at a minimum there should be some sort of an international zone established where probable cause or evidentiary criteria are suspended or drastically reduced so that combat forces can arrest and hold interdicted pirates. We have the zone setup already to delineate where ships can sail under naval protection, why can't we grant special legal status to that zone? I can understand why European powers and the US even are being such pussies, but why are the Egyptians, Chinese and the Saudis, who rely so heavily on transit through the GoA, not taking a tougher stance?

A Failure of Civilization

The piracy threat to commercial shipping in the Gulf of Aden has not only not been addressed, it has gotten worse. The pirates have now widened the area of threat and are increasing their capabilities:

U.K.: Insurers Widen Somali Pirate Threat Zone
December 21, 2010
The United Kingdom’s marine insurance industry has widened the area of waterways deemed high-risk for Somali pirate attacks, industry officials said Dec. 21, Reuters reported. According to Neil Roberts, a senior technical executive with the Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA), the pirates have large mother ships that can support operations much farther off the coast of Somalia than previously thought. The Joint War Committee, which groups LMA members with representatives from the London insurance industry, added the Gulf of Aden and a wider swath of the Indian Ocean to the list of waterways considered high-risk.

We are several years into this resurgence of a scourge that we in the civilized world know very well how to defeat and yet we are unable to deal with it effectively. In simple terms, it is because we are a bunch of namby-pamby, feminized, over-intellectualized twits. First, we very somberly declare in scholarly fashion that the root causes of piracy are too large to address immediately, that there needs to be an effective, politically stable government in Somalia that can give its citizens entry to the global economy and hope for a better future yadayadayada. Yeah well, keep waiting for the Great Pumpkin Linus. Second, the world's navies are deployed in the Gulf of Aden as a bunch of traffic cops to ostensibly protect ships where the threat is greatest. So the pirates simply move to strike where the navies are not. Duh. Finally, when we do capture some pirates, they are routinely released. Arghhhhh! What the hell are we thinking?!?! Send these damn shitheads to a watery grave at the bottom of the flippin' ocean and I guarantee the piracy threat will abate.

Good Guys With Guns Are Winning

Global acts of piracy continue to fall and have hit a seven-year low, according to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB).

A total of 49 incidents were recorded around the world in the first quarter of 2014, a level not seen since 2007 when there were 41 reported attacks.

Naval forces and armed guards continue to keep a lid on incidents off Somalia which accounted for just five of the total, the same number as the first quarter of last year, and no successful hijackings.

Well, at least good guys property owners with guns are winning. I think they are good guys, they've spent tens of millions of dollars for these vessels that bring us all sorts of things that we can't grow or make on our own and allow us to send things that we grow and make to other people, making all our lives better.  Surely, Thomas Piketty would disapprove, but to deal with all the shit that is required to buy, insure, crew, operate, and keep vessels from getting pirated, most ship owners make more than the median salary.

BTW, notice no jibberish about "root causes".  Last I checked, poverty/political stability in Somalia had not been cured.  But piracy is down.  Funny that.

Piracy Update

Somali pirates have seized a couple more commercial ships in the last two days. As you would expect, our modern world with its leviathan superstructure of bureaucracy and its 'root causes' ninnies places significant barriers to addressing the situation promptly and effectively. Two tropes that you will hear incessantly in media coverage is that 1) this is a global problem that demands global coordination, and 2) that there is no direct solution, only a solution that addresses the root cause, which is the lack of political stability in Somalia. Both are sheer poppycock on stilts. First, while this can be solved with global coordination, it is not a requirement that it be done so. The ultimate loser in this situation is Egypt. The only reason to sail through the Gulf of Aden is if you are transiting the Suez Canal. According to this, Egypt got over $3 billion in revenue from fees for passage through the canal in 2006. I would bet the fees are more like $5 billion now. Egypt needs that money, and as ship owners start to avoid the dangerous waters off of Somalia, it will be Egypt that feels the pinch most directly. The world can handle the delays and the increased costs of sending vessels on the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, and thus can wash its hands of key responsibility for the most part. Ultimately it falls to Egypt to protect its interests. Second, there is a direct solution - routing the pirates. Political stability in Somalia is not necessary, nor is it sufficient to put an end to the piracy. Nor is it likely. Creating stable political conditions in Somalia would be the hardest and most time consuming solution, and while it is ultimately the best long term solution, we have a critical short term need. Forcibly putting the pirates out of business is the near term requirement. Multinational naval power ought to establish a safe shipping corridor through the Gulf and a lead navy (ought to be European since Europe relies on Suez trade) ought to blockade the Somali port of Eyl - no one gets in or out without say so from the blockading navy. Third, pirates in international waters ought to be fair game. Any participating national navy can kill or capture pirates and process them through their own legal system. Personally, I would very much like to see pirates picked by the Saudi navy and put through the Saudi judicial system.

UPDATE: Whaddayaknow...the Arabs get that this is really their problem.

Piracy Progress?

Are we finally getting serious about piracy...?

The 306,500-dwt Artemis Glory (built 2006) came under attacked at about 06:35
GMT on Monday whilst sailing south east through the Gulf of Oman.

A UK Royal Fleet Auxiliary ship is said to received a mayday call from the VLCC, which was relayed to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) in Dubai.

UKMTO confirmed with the master of the Artemis Glory that she was being pursued by a skiff with four men on board who were firing upon the vessel.

The US Navy destroyer USS Bulkeley then responded to the mayday
and launched her helicopter to investigate the incident.

“The helicopter observed the Artemis Glory under attack by four individuals in a
skiff, who were firing upon the ship with small arms,” the US Navy confirmed.

“Under the principle of ‘extended unit self defence’ and in order to provide protection to the crew of the Artemis Glory, Bulkeley’s helicopter engaged the pirates. All of
the pirates are believed to have been killed.”

Principle of extended unit self-defence, huh? How about the principle of "pirates suck and should be sent to a watery grave"? Still, I'll take it. It's alot better than the complete failure of the civilized world that has prevailed up until now.

Civilization Paralyzed In Face of Piracy

"Somalia: NATO Commodore Predicts Increase In Pirate Attacks
March 12, 2010
NATO Commodore Hans Christian Helseth said the pirate attacks around Horn of Africa will increase in upcoming months and extend to east to India and south to Madagascar because of calmer weather, Reuters reported March 12. He said there was also pirate activity in the Bay of Bengal near Bangladesh as well as in the Gulf of Guinea off Nigeria. Helseth explained that the three months between winter and summer monsoons provide pirates with significant range in the Indian Ocean, and they are departing more frequently with fuel and supplies. "

Why the hell haven't we seen all out war against the pirates? Why haven't we put a couple of commando/special op/badass units in civilian garb on board a couple of these, troll the Gulf of Aden to draw the pirates in and then kill them all dead?? Do this three or four times and I guarantee piracy will go down.

Piracy Progress

Regular readers of NBfPB know that I follow and comment on the inexplicable resurgence of the scourge of piracy here at the dawn of the 21 century. Readers will further note that I favor the 19th century solution - watery graves for pirates - to this 19th century problem. Alas, much of the global shipping industry went along with the 21st century solution - international cooperation, under-resourced military escorts, haphazard judicial prosecution, namby-pamby rules of engagement - which has now proven a total failure. Today comes news of the capitulation. The largest ship-owning company in the world, AP Moeller-Maersk, long a holdout against having men with guns on its ships due to its vast global profile and inherent Danish pacifism, has given up on the oh-so-very-modern approach.

Danish shipping AP Moller-Maersk has accepted that armed security personnel are needed on its ships.

The decision to allow selective use of guards on some vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean comes after a thorough legal review, the Maritime Danmark website said.

Progress in my book.

Tanned, Rested and Ready

Sorry for the light blogging folks, was away with the Baseball clan for a little R&R in the tropics. There has been much I've wanted to blog on, but frankly when you are ensconced in a lounge chair on the beach with a mango and dark rum smoothie...it's low on the list. Couple things though fitting with my themes in the past...


- add yet another CEO who thinks Obama is clueless and is not afraid to say so, things are that bad. (bonus: Jack Welch calls it all a charade, like, well, I did)

- my $4 gas prediction is now vindicated and I may ultimately look like a piker for only predicting $4 as the CW is now talking about $5 gas. Just remember folks, I said in May of 2009 that Obama would have 10% unemployment and $4 gas to contend with as his bid for re-election got going. I am now officially a political forecasting genius. With that and all the other examples of abominable leadership and disastrous policy tracks that Obama has inflicted it is hard to see how he achieves re-election. That said, I was 200% convinced back in 2007 that the American people who never elect such a bozo, and yet we did. So frankly on these matters, I have some moments of doubt about my instincts. Still, the market though is confirming me for the time being. It's rise has been directly related to Obama's decline in approval ratings and increasing impotence politically. Current market sentiment is telling me that the market is cautiously optimistic that Obama will have a very difficult time of it in his re-election bid.

- people are now getting hip to what our impotent response to piracy says about us. I was on to the whole piracy thing before it was cool.

- every day that the union-led protest goes on in Wisconsin is a day worth reprising this post.

- looking around the world you could be forgiven for thinking that things are truly coming apart at the seems. Remember folks, American weakness begets chaos, and in direct proportion too. So the extreme state of discord around the world is telling us exactly how weak and pathetic we are at this point.

Good to be back.

You Heard It Hear First

I've been saying that "austerity" in Europe, and particularly in Britain, is non-existent.  Now, Forbes is backing me up.

I also noted a while back that no commercial ship with armed guards has been hijacked by pirates even while sailing through the pirate infested waters off Somalia, Nigeria or Indonesia, the world's piracy hotspots.  Today on the WSJ Op-Ed pages we learn that very same tidbit again.

Who Could Have Seen This Coming?

Over at Instapundit there is this...

Related: Walter Russell Mead: Obama’s Failing Foreign Policy, Groping For A Reset. “You don’t demonstrate your mastery of world events by making smart speeches about how intelligent your foreign policy is; you demonstrate your mastery of world events by having things go your way.” Well, that goes beyond the core competency. Plus, from the comments: “Some of us saw this coming a mile away. But we’re racists and bitter clingers.”

Saw this coming?  You mean like this...

WEDNESDAY, MAY 19, 2010
 American Weakness Begets Chaos
Thailand is in flames. North Korea is sinking South Korean naval vessels. Iran is hurtling fast toward nuclear capability (and is on the brink of a confrontation with Israel). Piracy is rampant in a major world shipping lane. Mexico is in a civil war with drug cartels on our border. Russia is flat out usurping power in Kyrgyzstan. Pakistani army officers are supporting terrorism operations on American soil. Al Qaeda is resurgent in Iraq. The Taliban are hitting the heart of the US's base of operations Afghanistan after years of our presence there.
Historians of a certain ilk understand and have made the case that American weakness begets chaos around the world. A strong America, girded with allies, focusing on commerce around the world dampens the desire for bad actors to violently usurp power and encourages peoples to support governments that allow for participation in global commercial activity. Nations and peoples follow and emulate a strong and prosperous America. Yet today, America has trashed two cherished, geo-politically important relationships - with Great Britain and with Israel. We are mute on North Korea and Chavez and solicitous of Ahmadinejad, Assad and Putin. Our President is spending precious political capital trashing our own states (and by extension, our federalist structure) while spouting mushy inanities like "We are not defined by our borders." On the economic front, we are sliding into protectionism, systematically dismantling dynamic free market entrepreneurial capitalism in favor of a statist/crony capitalist hybrid.

Elite pundits say America is on the decline and they are likely right, but we are not in an irreparable decline. We are in a decline of choice. We have chosen (or more accurately, been asleep and let certain factions of us choose) declinist policies. We have chosen weakness and opted for appeasement of usurpers and thugs. We have consciously built barriers to economic propserity. None of this was inevitable and a reversal is indeed possible, but we have to see things clearly for what they are and make the choices to reject weakness and stagnation. Britain failed to do it earlier this month. What will we do this November and in 2012? Will we emulate Britain and choose to muddle along? Our own fate hangs in the balance, but so does much much more. Chaos is on the march around the world. Eventually it will land here or force our invlovement in which we pay a heavy price. Which way will we go?

Metaphor for the Modern World: Special Courts vs. Dead Pirates

A shipping industry executive whose family has been in the shipping business for genreations understands the historical reality and offers the unvarnished truth on how to cure the $7-$12 billion plague of piracy: "sink their vessels and their pirates with man and mouse" and "kill them on the spot." Good to see at least someone who isn't infected with modern, ahistorical fantasties about how to deal with ancient problems of human nature, like yours truly. Of course, his company immediately trotted out the classic politically correct corporate responsibility bullshit in the name of PR damage control to keep the bien pensant hordes at bay. Contrast Mr. Stolt-Nielsen's response with the modern response of the political establishment...more courts. That sound you don't hear is hundreds of young, illiterate Somali men, who make a nice living hijacking $300 million assets using $300 fiberglass skiffs, quaking in their boots.

How NOT To Fight Piracy

Pirates let off
Germany has let suspected pirates go after catching them with pirate paraphernalia off the Seychelles. The warship FGS Bremen spotted a suspected mother skiff and two smaller craft in the Somali Basin on Tuesday, EU NAVFOR wrote in a statement. A helicopter was dispatched and warnings shots were fired at the suspect craft causing them to stop. “The crew from the helicopter observed that the suspected pirates threw a number of items over board,” the statement read. “A boarding party from the German warship found on the skiff grappling hooks, ammunition, GPS and 10 barrels of fuel. The skiffs had no fishing equipment onboard.” The troops were, however, unable to arrest the suspected pirates, instead letting them and their larger vessel go. It is understood that the two small skiffs were destroyed by the Navy.

Link here (sub req.)

What a bunch of weenies those Germans.

UPDATE: Here is a much better approach:
Cameroon: 4 Suspected Pirates Killed - Defense Ministry
Stratfor Today »-->October 15, 2009
Four suspected pirates died in an Oct. 10 counterattack by Cameroon’s rapid intervention force, with three more injured and captured, and two others missing, Reuters reported Oct. 15, citing a Cameroon Defense Ministry statement. The alleged pirates’ speedboat was destroyed and a cache of weapons was seized. The Oct. 10 pirate attack off the Bakassi peninsula was the first in the Gulf of Guinea since March.

Maybe this Will Wake Us Up

Oh, I guess the issue of piracy (on the high seas that is) - and our sucking at addressing it - is now going to be cool or something...


Of course, before it was cool...

Piracy About As Brazen As It Can Be

Well, the punks managed to hijack a $100 million ship laden with likely $200 million of oil. And it wasn't as if this ship was a remote loner way out at sea. They nabbed this one 350 miles southeast of Muscat in the Gulf Oman, basically right at the doorstep to the Persian Gulf, where 40% of the world's sea-borne oil transits. The only more brazen it could get is if they boarded the ship at the dock and sailed off with it. Civilization is asleep.

UN Chief: "We Suck"

Ban Ki-Moon today admitted that the United Nations, representing the collective will and resources of the entire world, is getting its ass kicked by gangs of illiterate third-world punks. Not holding my breath that this admission of failure will result in the adoption of the Donny Baseball Anti-Piracy Plan.

Note to Brilliant Politician, Pirates Don't Have Checking Accounts

If you'd asked me in the last few months or so to imagine what scenario might produce the most laughably asinine policy reaction, it would have been either "Barney Frank seeks to fix the banks once and for all" or "Hillary Clinton Tackles Scourage of Piracy." Well, obviously we have our winner. Instilling fear of visiting Davy Jones's Locker this is not.

American Weakness Begets Chaos

Thailand is in flames. North Korea is sinking South Korean naval vessels. Iran is hurtling fast toward nuclear capability (and is on the brink of a confrontation with Israel). Piracy is rampant in a major world shipping lane. Mexico is in a civil war with drug cartels on our border. Russia is flat out usurping power in Kyrgyzstan. Pakistani army officers are supporting terrorism operations on American soil. Al Qaeda is resurgent in Iraq. The Taliban are hitting the heart of the US's base of operations Afghanistan after years of our presence there.

Historians of a certain ilk understand and have made the case that American weakness begets chaos around the world. A strong America, girded with allies, focusing on commerce around the world dampens the desire for bad actors to violently usurp power and encourages peoples to support governments that allow for participation in global commercial activity. Nations and peoples follow and emulate a strong and prosperous America. Yet today, America has trashed two cherished, geo-politically important relationships - with Great Britain and with Israel. We are mute on North Korea and Chavez and solicitous of Ahmadinejad, Assad and Putin. Our President is spending precious political capital trashing our own states (and by extension, our federalist structure) while spouting mushy inanities like "We are not defined by our borders." On the economic front, we are sliding into protectionism, systematically dismantling dynamic free market entrepreneurial capitalism in favor of a statist/crony capitalist hybrid.
Elite pundits say America is on the decline and they are likely right, but we are not in an irreparable decline. We are in a decline of choice. We have chosen (or more accurately, been asleep and let certain factions of us choose) declinist policies. We have chosen weakness and opted for appeasement of usurpers and thugs. We have consciously built barriers to economic propserity. None of this was inevitable and a reversal is indeed possible, but we have to see things clearly for what they are and make the choices to reject weakness and stagnation. Britain failed to do it earlier this month. What will we do this November and in 2012? Will we emulate Britain and choose to muddle along? Our own fate hangs in the balance, but so does much much more. Chaos is on the march around the world. Eventually it will land here or force our invlovement in which we pay a heavy price. Which way will we go?