Oil WIll KO Obama (Updated!!)

I told you ( in May of 2009, no less) that 10% unemployment and $4 gas would send Obama into the history books as a one term disaster a la Jimmy Carter. I nailed 10% unemployment with one hand tied behind my back; $4 gas has been more elusive, but it's coming. This segment of Sir Lawrence's show gives you the goods. It's partly Mr. Bernanke's fault but Dear Leader's clueless drilling moratorium, which has yet to be felt in the economy - the oil market operates with a 6-12 month lag - sealed the deal. It's coming. Sir Lawrence is right, $140 crude in July of 2008 gets little blame for the subsequent meltdown, but it was decisive in my opinion. Obama is staggering around the ring right now, and oil will deliver the knockout blow. Unfortunately you and me will feel it too.

UPDATE: Peter Beinart - who, while not very compelling a thinker/writer, is no run-of-the-mill lefty twit - thinks Obama is a lock for a second term. He gives three reasons: 1) the base will rally, 2) the economy will rebound, 3) the GOP will screw it up. Only one of these is at all convincing to me and that is #3. Yes the GOP could screw it up, although one thing is clear to me, if they screw it up they will screw it up less than last time. So will the voters reject a GOP that is learning its lessons, albeit imperfectly, for four more years of Obama? Maybe, but doubtful. As to #1, I can't (nor would I want) to crawl inside the head of anyone typical of Obama's "base" but I have posited that the Obama coalition is dead. Fine, the base may rally but Obama needed a coalition last time and he'll need it again, but it is gone forever. "The base" isn't enough. (Oh, and let's not forget the other side's "base", if you think the Tea Party crowd will be satisfied with what they achieve in November, you've got another thing coming. Small-gov conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Partiers all understand that this is a two cycle fight at a minimum and that the really important pink slip that they need to issue is...Obama's.) Finally, IMHO the economy will stumble along, but even if the economy does do OK it won't feel like it to the average voter - lackluster growth won't create enough jobs to absorb workforce growth, $4 gas will dampen consumer spending, ObamaCare fallout will continue to plague businesses, and we will continue to look like laggards relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, and this is a point that Beinart completely ignores, the world will look a mess and/or Obama's foreign policy ineptitude will shine through in a particularly visible and ugly way. The world's bad guys have already sized Obama up and will do what they want, and the world's good guys realize that Obama doesn't much care or even think about things in terms of good/bad, so no net positive on the global scene is forthcoming.

My take is that Obama's troubles are only beginning. One of the structural flaws that he had coming in to his Presidency was a shallow political base. As a newby, he didn't have the deep networks and connections to draw the top talent to his side; he only had the ability to draw party loyalists who do what they do for the party, not for him. As he proves damaging to the party, these folks will not sign up to resurrect the great Obama experiment, which is a major problem for him. He is going to need top class talent to resurrect his presidency. Where is he going to find these people? Where are the All-stars going to come from? Answer: He's not gonna get them. Is he really going to turn things around dramatically in 20 months with a bunch of B-teamers? Doubtful.

Think I'm wrong? Let me remind you what I said just over a year ago: "Mark these words, we will see at least one high profile cabinet resignation in the next six months and as many as three in the next 18 months as some determine that it is not good for their careers to be associated with this administration (Gates excluded)." We've gotten more than three in thirteen months. Trust Donny B. on this one. Beinart's got nothing on me.

Flashback

This is what I wrote in October of 2010:

Peter Beinart - who, while not very compelling a thinker/writer, is no run-of-the-mill lefty twit - thinks Obama is a lock for a second term. He gives three reasons: 1) the base will rally, 2) the economy will rebound, 3) the GOP will screw it up. Only one of these is at all convincing to me and that is #3. Yes the GOP could screw it up, although one thing is clear to me, if they screw it up they will screw it up less than last time. So will the voters reject a GOP that is learning its lessons, albeit imperfectly, for four more years of Obama? Maybe, but doubtful. As to #1, I can't (nor would I want) to crawl inside the head of anyone typical of Obama's "base" but I have posited that the Obama coalition is dead. Fine, the base may rally but Obama needed a coalition last time and he'll need it again, but it is gone forever. "The base" isn't enough. (Oh, and let's not forget the other side's "base", if you think the Tea Party crowd will be satisfied with what they achieve in November, you've got another thing coming. Small-gov conservatives, libertarians, and Tea Partiers all understand that this is a two cycle fight at a minimum and that the really important pink slip that they need to issue is...Obama's.) Finally, IMHO the economy will stumble along, but even if the economy does do OK it won't feel like it to the average voter - lackluster growth won't create enough jobs to absorb workforce growth, $4 gas will dampen consumer spending, ObamaCare fallout will continue to plague businesses, and we will continue to look like laggards relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, and this is a point that Beinart completely ignores, the world will look a mess and/or Obama's foreign policy ineptitude will shine through in a particularly visible and ugly way. The world's bad guys have already sized Obama up and will do what they want, and the world's good guys realize that Obama doesn't much care or even think about things in terms of good/bad, so no net positive on the global scene is forthcoming.

My take is that Obama's troubles are only beginning. One of the structural flaws that he had coming in to his Presidency was a shallow political base. As a newby, he didn't have the deep networks and connections to draw the top talent to his side; he only had the ability to draw party loyalists who do what they do for the party, not for him. As he proves damaging to the party, these folks will not sign up to resurrect the great Obama experiment, which is a major problem for him. He is going to need top class talent to resurrect his presidency. Where is he going to find these people? Where are the All-stars going to come from? Answer: He's not gonna get them. Is he really going to turn things around dramatically in 20 months with a bunch of B-teamers? Doubtful.

Holds up pretty well if you ask me.

Obama's Base?

Well, Drudge is headlining this AM that Obama's base has crumbled. This is, obviously, a severe problem, but one that I have noted could happen as Democratic party poobahs contemplate just how much damage to the party they will stand for at hands of The One. I also noted that the "coalition" was long gone - Obama could hang on to his base and still lose re-election because he needs a coalition akin to 2008. But a weak base is almost a sure sign that he is cooked. So, still think the base will rally Peter Beinart?

Comparing My Take to That of the Pros

Two posts in the blogosphere today that echo some of my past analyses. First, Jay Cost has a lengthy analysis of the notion that Barack Obama is a popular president. It's a good read and echoes some thoughts I've penned here on NBfPB. First, Cost looks at the full approval trend from Hopeandchange Day 1 recognizes the obvious - it's been nothing but one way, down, except for two positive, but meaningless, blips. Here was my take on the blips:

The second thing that struck me was the two brief instances of inflection that Dear Leader experienced, one around the start of the year and the other after the bin Laden killing. The former was almost entirely a media conjuring. The MSM puffed up lame duck "victories" into some sort of unassailable comeback. I chronicled and debunked that mirage rather thoroughly here, here and here. I also came out fairly clearly on the "bin Laden bounce will fade" side.

and here was my take on the big picture:

My basic conclusion is this - the mega-trend, or the "big idea", is that Americans have always known deep in their bones that Obama was a gamble and they are now 90% convinced that they have lost that gamble. There is almost nothing that can stop this trend from playing out.

Cost is more non-committal on the meaning of the big picture, but he sees the macro trend for what it is - the Lightworker is not popular by standard definitions.

The other tidbit is from Politico via Hot Air - Bill Daley apparently isn't working his magic rebuilding Obama's reputation with the business community. As Capt. Ed suggests, the Daleys have never been known as political incompetents. So what's going on? What if Bill, just maybe, wasn't giving it his level best. What theory could possibly support that notion...

Jan. 12, 2011: "The Clintonite cadre will now set the conditions as best they can for Democratic success (work with Boehner, win back business) but otherwise allow Obama to blunder into a situation that enhances Hillary's profile."

Mar. 14, 2011: "...the Clintonites now own the Obama presidency lock, stock and barrel and...they would steward it as responsibly as possible for the sake of the party but ultimately phase the Obama era out"

Aug. 11, 2011: "His presidency is in caretaker mode. No, not as Peter Beinart posits in his latest nitwittery, where Obama is the caretaker of a declining America, but rather where the Clintonites are the caretakers of a declining Obama."

Hmmmm...

I'll Say It Again: Obama Is Cooked (from the Inside)

Well folks, I've been saying it (and saying it, and saying it, and saying it, and saying it).  Here is the original exposition of the theory:

Obama has been told it's over. He will not be given the keys to the Democratic Party's future and be allowed to own the vast apparatus of the party's traditional assets for decades to come as an all-conquering two term President. His presidency is in caretaker mode. No, not as Peter Beinart posits in his latest nitwittery, where Obama is the caretaker of a declining America, but rather where the Clintonites are the caretakers of a declining Obama.

The Clintons will simply not allow Obama to be the second and reigning two-term Democrat President since FDR and thus hold the keys to the Democratic Party.  An admixture of ego and a responsibility to keep the Democrat Party strong is driving Bubba and Hill to softly (for now) undermine Obama and ease him into a cushy retirement.  Don't believe me?  Ask yourself why Bill Daley was the source of all the WaPo's damaging exposes of O's leadership?  Ask yourself why Mort Zuckerman sounds like a Tea Partier with his frequent and no-holds-barred critiques of O's economic policy.  And ask yourself why Obama's fundraising has struggled and he's had to resort to $3 raffle tickets (hint: the big donors are Clinton people). 

And now, comes, well, more of what we know to be true...Bubba hates and disdains the Lightworker.  Obama has made mistake after mistake, and precisely on the heels of what most see as an egregiously cynical flip-flop/pander/election gambit (despite the media's best attempts to spin it as a bold, courageous move), this sentiment from Bubba hits the airwaves??? 

Compared to what Obama faces in the Clintons, Mitt Romney is a cute puppy dog.  Look for more kicks while Obama is down from here until November. 

Is Obama Cooked...from the Inside?

Ya' know, people are starting to wonder what gives with all the Twilight Zonish behavior of our President, especially given that he is the smartest President ever and a Lightworker and all. Here is but one small example (OK here is another). As always, welcome to the party fellas and since you are beginning to wonder where all this crazy comes from, I'll tell you. Obama has been told it's over. He will not be given the keys to the Democratic Party's future and be allowed to own the vast apparatus of the party's traditional assets for decades to come as an all-conquering two term President. His presidency is in caretaker mode. No, not as Peter Beinart posits in his latest nitwittery, where Obama is the caretaker of a declining America, but rather where the Clintonites are the caretakers of a declining Obama. I've gone through all of this before, and recently too.

I know. You're asking, "Wait. DB, you can't be suggesting that the Clintonites will sacrifice another four years of Democratic control of the White House, just to phase Obama out, can you? Yes, that is precisely what I am suggesting. First, if Obama wins another term it'll probably be accompanied by Republican gains in Congress and incumbency for many is a worse problem to have in the future than incumbency for one. Frankly, I think the Dems would rather run congressional candidates against a President Romney or President Perry rather than in tandem with an Obama second term - the American people seem pretty clear that they want Dear Leader in check. Second, I think the Dems are hurting to get back in with the business community and get their donations flowing again. IMHO the cash is not likely flowing very strongly from business to the Dems and that is where the money is. Finally, I think that in foreign policy Obama is even too feckless for many establishment Dems. While Democrats certainly hate wars of our choosing, I think many establishment Dems fear wars not of our choosing just as much. It is likely that mainstream Democratic foreigin policy establishment types think that Obama's buffoonery could stumble the nation into a war not of our choosing. So yes, I do think that the Clintonites have hung Obama out to dry or at least are not giving his administration their level best. Doesn't it show?