Wednesday, December 22, 2010

START: A Treaty Between Two Deceivers...the Russians and Obama

Like many liberals, I suppose, Fred Kaplan still believes that Obama bargains in good faith. He seems to think that one form of opposition to the START treaty comes people who worry about our ability to develop defensive missile systems. Why worry, says Kaplan, because President Obama has assured us all that we will develop those defensive systems. Classic. It would never occur to Kaplan that nobody believes Obama any more. Nobody believes that what he says today will be what he does or says tomorrow. The list of flip-flops, course-changes and outright deceptions and betrayals is so long, my fingers just hurt thinking about typing them out for you here. There are places you can go for this rich history. When you have a President with such a sordid history of political thuggery, a two-year track record of "promise expiration dates", and a long-standing desire for radical nuclear disarmament - well, you just might say that Obama's say so isn't a reasonable enough basis to relent on principled objection to the treaty's specifics. And of course, the Russians are inveterate liars, so detailed and specific language in any agreement with them, irrespective of the US administration's character, is critical (OK, let the PC numb-nuts go into a tizzy, and put their ignorance of history on display, but the history is pretty clear on this point). Sure, I'll grant there are those that just want to deny Obama a perceived success, but the objectors to START stand on the solidest of ground.

The thing about this though, is this is not some meaningless corner of the vast regulatory apparatus, this is a major treaty with a less-than friendly/cooperative quasi-adversary. This treaty, if it proves truly restrictive and damaging, will get fall apart - a tough-minded successor to Obama will ignore it and/or the Russians will want out the day they realize that whatever Obama has put on the table is not forthcoming.

UPDATE: Ratified. I'll bet in 15 years this treaty will not be in force. The United States of America will pursue defensive weapons systems even if the Obama administration will not. And the Russians will bail out then.

UPPDATE: I'm wondering Obama will say at the victory presser..."I know Americans care very much about this critical foreign policy achievement and will ignore the prevailing 10% unemployment rate, rising gas prices, and the continued negative unanticipated consequences of our healthcare reform bill and applaud me for this critical improvement in our nation's standing in the world - because when we get weaker we are actually getting stronger because we are making the rest of the world stronger and we are no different from the rest of the world - and they'll want to reelect me as they see that I can do these really important foreign policy things..." Yup, a true winning hand, that.

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