Comparing My Take to That of the Pros

Two posts in the blogosphere today that echo some of my past analyses. First, Jay Cost has a lengthy analysis of the notion that Barack Obama is a popular president. It's a good read and echoes some thoughts I've penned here on NBfPB. First, Cost looks at the full approval trend from Hopeandchange Day 1 recognizes the obvious - it's been nothing but one way, down, except for two positive, but meaningless, blips. Here was my take on the blips:

The second thing that struck me was the two brief instances of inflection that Dear Leader experienced, one around the start of the year and the other after the bin Laden killing. The former was almost entirely a media conjuring. The MSM puffed up lame duck "victories" into some sort of unassailable comeback. I chronicled and debunked that mirage rather thoroughly here, here and here. I also came out fairly clearly on the "bin Laden bounce will fade" side.

and here was my take on the big picture:

My basic conclusion is this - the mega-trend, or the "big idea", is that Americans have always known deep in their bones that Obama was a gamble and they are now 90% convinced that they have lost that gamble. There is almost nothing that can stop this trend from playing out.

Cost is more non-committal on the meaning of the big picture, but he sees the macro trend for what it is - the Lightworker is not popular by standard definitions.

The other tidbit is from Politico via Hot Air - Bill Daley apparently isn't working his magic rebuilding Obama's reputation with the business community. As Capt. Ed suggests, the Daleys have never been known as political incompetents. So what's going on? What if Bill, just maybe, wasn't giving it his level best. What theory could possibly support that notion...

Jan. 12, 2011: "The Clintonite cadre will now set the conditions as best they can for Democratic success (work with Boehner, win back business) but otherwise allow Obama to blunder into a situation that enhances Hillary's profile."

Mar. 14, 2011: "...the Clintonites now own the Obama presidency lock, stock and barrel and...they would steward it as responsibly as possible for the sake of the party but ultimately phase the Obama era out"

Aug. 11, 2011: "His presidency is in caretaker mode. No, not as Peter Beinart posits in his latest nitwittery, where Obama is the caretaker of a declining America, but rather where the Clintonites are the caretakers of a declining Obama."

Hmmmm...