NY-9 Is Obama Waterloo

There was a congressional election in my neck of the woods last night. For non-New Yorkers, it may be difficult to understand just how Democratic this district is. You can get a taste via Drudge or some other source that helpfully points out that the Dems have held NY-9 since 1923.

That's a good start in understanding it. Let me add to the mix - up until recently it was inconceivable (look it up, b/c I mean truly inconceivable) that a Republican could win in this district. There are so many layers of Democrat/left beliefs entrenched in this district, I almost still don't believe that the Republican won. People in NY-9 believe that the government can do no wrong, that's first. They have read the NY Times everyday of their lives since the day after they learned to read and are highly skeptical of free market capitalism and couldn't conceive of any merit to limited government. Second, they are overwhelmingly Jewish. New York jews are raised to believe that Republicans are akin to Nazis. No matter how supportive Republicans and how antagonistic Democrats are to Israel respectively, New York jews just don't vote Republican, because they are taught that it would be inviting the next holocaust. Finally, NY-9 is union territory where the union/Democrat machinery is highly entrenched and active.

This was about as difficult a district to grab as the Republicans could face. The fact that they took it is, as Prof. Reynolds notes, is a "big f--in deal". For me this is the straw that will break the camels back. I have posited that there is a level of damage beyond which the Democrat party poobahs will not accept.

"This will be gut-wrenching for Dems, they are likely facing an intra-party debate on the fundamental question of whether to go all in for Obama and resurrect his presidency or pull the plug entirely on Hopeandchange and, as they so famously put it, "move on."

I think the pressure has been building, but after the NY-9 loss, I think we are at the tipping point. The generals will abandon the hill and redeploy forces - party money for 2012 will go to congressional races, local races and tangential progressive causes, Obama will have to spend only what he can raise, and numerous Democrats will abandon the President in their campaigns. The party will soon start positioning for 2014 and 2016. We've seen soft support erode, watch now for hard support to flee the Lightworker.

UPDATE: Bad analysis on my part...turns out it was all those Warren Harding Republicans turning out...

UPPDATE: Apparently John Fund and Andrew Breitbart are offering almost identical analysis as I have offered beginning almost a year ago...