Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Why Is the Stock Market Up?

Is yesterday's and today's market action part of the "One Term Rally"?
Secondarily, I think this is good for the stock market. The economy will muddle through for the remainder of this year and into next, but the further Obama slides and the lower his chances at reelection get, I think we will see an inversely proportional growth in economic optimism. The more it looks like Obama is a goner, the more American business leaders will feel like a giant weight is being lifted, the more entrepreneurs will feel like the sky is clearing. I predict a rough inverse correlation from here on in between Obama's poll numbers and the stock market - call it the "one term rally."
Hard to say with Europe such a big factor weighing on the markets. Sure, some politicians said some mildly reassuring thigns, but are we to believe that Europe's crisis is any less intractable today than it was two days ago? US politics is a distinct possibility as a driver of this market.

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