Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Meta Trend in the Approval Ratings

John Hinderaker examines the Lightworker's approval ratings over time and concludes, almost exactly as I have done, that there is a larger theme here beyond the minor blips up or down - most American voters realize that in 2008 we gambled and lost. We gambled on an unvetted, untested neophyte candidate, we took a leap of faith, and it was a mistake.
Looking at the RCP data, I am struck by two things. First, except for two small periods, Obama's approval trajectory has been nothing but one way, down. It is almost as if this guy's incapacity to lead in a way that pleases voters had become obvious from day one. (Actually, it was to some of us, but you certainly didn't here or read about it.) The second thing that struck me was the two brief instances of inflection that Dear Leader experienced, one around the start of the year and the other after the bin Laden killing. The former was almost entirely a media conjuring. The MSM puffed up lame duck "victories" into some sort of unassailable comeback. I chronicled and debunked that mirage rather thoroughly here, here and here. I also came out fairly clearly on the "bin Laden bounce will fade" side.

So, what is my point? My basic conclusion is this - the mega-trend, or the "big idea", is that Americans have always known deep in their bones that Obama was a gamble and they are now 90% convinced that they have lost that gamble. There is almost nothing that can stop this trend from playing out.
Today the MSM is desperately trying to conjure up another bump up in Obama's approval rating. They are touting the economy's measly upturn from its pitiful depths as some sort of miracle that could only come from the hands of the genius and beneficent Obama, when it is the result of the effective neutering of the full Obama legislative agenda combined with the US economy's natural resilience. This is a classic political tussle and the MSM will be quite good at advancing their pro-Obama take, but what is more problematic for them, as is always the case, is the reality. The economic recovery might not be so miracley - you'll have days like today where we learn that durable goods orders are way down and that housing prices continue to fall.

The media needs at least something plausible to spin, the thinner the gruel, the less its heart will be in it (yes, even the MSM at some point has an eye on its own credibility). Days like today can only temper the pro-Obama media spin, which will slow the momentum of any Lightworker rejuvenation project, which Dear Leader can ill-afford given the meta-trend of his approval ratings.


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