Economist: Government Economic Numbers Are Phony

Not at all right-wing economist Justin Wolfers let's us in on a not quite secret, but little known tidbit.

This morning, for instance, it reported that initial unemployment claims were 292,000, a decrease of 31,000, and a number fully 35,000 below expectations. It’s the sort of number that might lead you to become more optimistic about the recovery.

But you shouldn’t.

Apparently, two states are in the midst of retooling their computer systems, and so they reported smaller than usual tallies. How do I know this? You could try reading the full data release, but you won’t find it. I’m only aware of it because Bloomberg News's Jeanna Smialek was in the press lockup, and the Labor Department spokesman there read a “technical note” out loud to the assembled reporters, while declining to name the states affected. The department made no such details available to those of us who weren’t in the lockup. Moreover, we have no idea if the same problem also afflicts the count of continuing unemployment claims.

It’s nuts.

Wolfers accuses the Labor Department of publishing bad data, knowing it's bad and not telling anybody.  For an inept Obama administration that has bungled economic policy from the get-go this is definitely a feature, not a bug.  The problem for the rest of us is that this is banana republic stuff.

Glenn Reynolds often says that a Jimmy Carter redux is the best case scenario (although he appears to have abandoned even that "optimistic" take).  My version of the same concept, is that if Obama and his sad cult merely turns us into France, that would be dodging a bullet, because on present course he's turning us into Argentina.