Thursday, September 15, 2005

BBC Outsources US Economic Reporting to 15 Year Old

The BBC has an inept report on the first new unemployment claims number in the US after Hurricane Katrina. There were 68,000 new jobless claims attributable to Katrina out of a total of 398,000 total claims and every attempt is made to make this rather dull number as sensationally dire as possible (to "sex it up" in BBC parlance). Here it is:

US jobless claims at 10-year high

Before Katrina struck, the US economy was creating new jobsUS unemployment has surged in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, with the weekly rise in the number of people claiming benefits jumping to 10-year highs. The US Labor Department said 71,000 people signed up for benefits last week - with 68,000 of those claims directly attributable to the effect of Katrina.


The increase is more than was seen after the 11 September terror attacks. President George W Bush is expected to announce moves to help people affected by the hurricane later on Thursday.

Economic pressure
There have been calls for the limit to be extended on the time a person can claim unemployment benefit. At present, they can sign up for a maximum of 26 weeks, but policymakers want that extended to 39 in order to ease the lives of those hit by Katrina. The total number of claimants in the week ending 10 September was 398,000 - its highest level in two years. The worry among economists is that the extra government spending will put increasing pressure on the US budget deficit at a time when it already is having to finance military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. After hitting record levels last year, the budget deficit has been trimmed but is still running at unsustainable levels.


First, the title claims the number is a 10-year high. Well, the number is not a 10-year high as anybody who follows this number easily knows. The rate of increase from the last report, was the highest in 10 years. The number excluding Katrina claimants is actually relatively low.

The next sensational bit: "The increase is more than was seen after the 11 September terror attacks." Oh my God, things are worse than on 9/11! Crikey! Truth is that the majority of layoffs came weeks and months after 9/11/01 as the economic damage became clear. There is no way to know at this point how Katrina will compare, so any comparison is less than meaningless.

Then some drivel about "calls" for this and economists "worry" about that as we get the grand finale: "After hitting record levels last year, the budget deficit has been trimmed but is still running at unsustainable levels. "

It has been trimmed, has it? Yeah, try from $412 billion to $331 billion. Just a slight 20% trimming. Seems to me that if you lop something off at a rate of 20% per year, you can get it down to nothing in due time. So how is it that we are at unsustainable levels? How long do we have to right the ship? What are the consequences? We don't know, cause they don't say, but the clear implication is that things are looking bad for the good ole' US of A. Except that we're much less "unsustainable" than say France or Germany, as our budget deficit is 2.6% of GDP compared to over 4% in those countries.

After that feast of specificity, context and insight, we have...nothing. Unsustainable levels, full stop, as they say. Is this bias or some assistant deputy junior intern banging out some copy before dashing out for pints after work?

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