Friday, September 09, 2016

The Future Is Actually Easy to Predict

I was going to do a completely different post (I will do it later) but in the course of doing research for it, I came across an excerpt from a Bret Stephens column from 2011.  Remember, this was written in 2011.
"Greece was never going to be bailed out and will, sooner or later, default. The banks holding Greek debt will, sooner or later, be recapitalized. The recapitalization will be borne by German taxpayers, and it will bring them—sooner rather than later—to the outer limit of their forbearance. The Chinese will not ride to the rescue: They know not to throw good money after bad.
And then Italy will go Greek. Europe's crisis will lap on U.S. shores, and America's economic woes will lap on Europe's—a two-way tsunami.
What comes next is the explosion of the European project. Given what European leaders have made of that project over the past 30-odd years, it's not an altogether bad thing. But it will come at a massive cost. The riots of Athens will become those of Milan, Madrid and Marseilles. Parties of the fringe will gain greater sway. Border checkpoints will return. Currencies will be resurrected, then devalued. Countries will choose decay over reform. It's a long, likely parade of horribles."
Germans at the end of their rope, border fences, fraying of the EU, fringe parties winning elections.  Again, this is from 2011.  Not a bad crystal ball Mr. Stephens.

Here was the original post.


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