Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Is Venezuela Finally Going Over the Falls?

I've been charting the disintegration of Venezuela almost since the beginning of this blog eight years ago.  If you've read Hayek's Road to Serfdom or been even marginally familiar with the history of Soviet Russia, you could have predicted Venezuela's demise with stunning accuracy. 

Has any country ever followed the classic playbook of self-destruction as faithfully and fallen apart as predictably as Venezuela?

In the latest, the military has taken over an electronics chain in order ensure "fair" prices on things like wide screen TVs.  I don't have to go into how stupid this policy is, but suffice it to say that the bond market, which has been surprisingly unconcerned about Venezuelan socialism for some time, is taking notice.
Venezuelan bonds tumbled, sending yields to a 22-month high, after President Nicolas Maduro dispatched the military to take over a retail chain as part of his effort to quell inflation that’s soared above 50 percent.
The country’s benchmark bonds due 2027 fell 3.75 cents to 72.25 cents on the dollar as Maduro’s seizure of electronics retailer Daka and his warnings to other businesses to cut prices to “fair” levels deepened investor concern that growth is being choked off by government controls. Yields on the bonds soared 0.76 percentage point to 13.79 percent, the highest since January 2012, at 12:38 p.m. in New York.
Maduro, who took over as president this year after his socialist mentor Hugo Chavez died of cancer, is stiffening government-imposed price controls that have contributed to food and goods shortages across the South American country. Maduro blamed the “parasitic bourgeoisie” and said he’d impose limits on profit margins throughout the economy after inflation surged to 54 percent in October, the fastest pace in 16 years.
Chavez ruined the country but was at least able to paper over the destruction with his charisma.  Maduro won't be able to do the same.  This could the beginning of the end for Chavismo.

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