T-Bills and the Trillion Dollar Coin

The Treasury market is off to a piss poor start in 2013.  Gee, I wonder why...

Fire up the wayback machine to...the day after Election Day!

Treasuries: near term neutral, long term bearish - Treasury yields can't get much lower, Obama will tack on $5 trillion more debt in O2.0 and Bernanke will inflate, inflate, inflate.  You will lose your shirt loaning money to Obama 2.0's US of A.

 or February 2011 if you will

In my view the next crisis is the sovereign crisis, more specifically, a US sovereign debt crisis brought about by the prevailing approach of spending gobs of money (and locking in much bigger government, call it the Rahm Emmanuel UnWasted Crisis Effect) to cure what was essentially a monetray panic. We've institutionalized a response that is no longer needed and that we can't afford (we couldn't afford the pre-crisis level, but at least we had breathing room - we've since removed any breathing room). Thus, US debt will get a hefty mark down in the coming years. There is no political solution to this problem, bondholders will have to grab the reins.

or May 2010 even

A basic tenet of corporate finance is that equity returns are based on the risk-free rate plus an equity risk premium. In English this means that it is riskier to hold equities than the risk-free asset, traditionally US Treasuries, so investors require more return to hold equities. I believe that we are in the early stages of a fundamental breakdown of this bedrock assumption....The US government is positioning its fiscal future to resemble those European countries that today are facing a painful reckoning the likes of which we haven't seen in decades. Yet we are still supposed to operate according to the paradigm that equities should pay us a premium over lending to the US government?...Equities are massively underpriced and treasuries are massively overpriced. The bear market in treasuries could be of the scale and duration of the great bond bull market that began in the early 1980s when your mortgage was 17% and money market funds were paying 14%. The bull market in equities could be just as powerful as the last ten years was anemic.