Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Wow. It's Coming Good and Hard.

I'm shocked.  My worst feeling comes not from what Obama is going to do to this country over the next four, unrestrained years, but what it means for this country now that its citizens have lost all sense of judgement, discernment and wisdom.  It is one thing to be seduced by a charlatan once, it is entirely another to double down on a charlatan's spell.  I am deeply, deeply pessimistic about the future of a country that can elect an unqualified, inexperienced, and subversive fool to the highest office in the land...twice; and reject the decency and accomplishment of of a man like Mitt Romney.  We deserve everything we get - depression, chaos, war, inflation, loss of liberty, social strife.  It's coming and we deserve every last ounce.  We have voted and we will get what we deserve...good and hard, I might add.

As for my part, the fight never stops.  Obama 2.0 requires Galtism 4.0.  Withdrawal is the order of the day.  Time to simply bunker down and hide under our desks for another four years.  Eight years is a long time, but so be it.  As 5%er (not quite a 1%er, sorry), I'm hunkering down, reigning in, living to fight another day.

Here's the tentative investment call:

- Treasuries: near term neutral, long term bearish - Treasury yields can't get much lower, Obama will tack on $5 trillion more debt in O2.0 and Bernanke will inflate, inflate, inflate.  You will lose your shirt loaning money to Obama 2.0's US of A.

- Equities: near term bearish, long term bullish - businesses will hunker down, hoard cash, avoid growth initiatives, but the prospect of losing your shirt in Treasuries will keep some demand under equities.  You will need a multi-year time horizon for returns in equities though.

- Commodities:  bullish - inflation is coming, good and hard.

- Real Estate:  bearish - property taxes are going up massively for everybody, the local fiscal imbalances will get pushed off and get worse, and the bill is going to be sent to people who can't react quickly.

As a sage has said/is saying, I'll be as gracious as the other side was in 2000 and 2004.

UPDATE:  Be deeply careful about hogwash analysis like this.  This is sheer poppycock.  Equities are not in love with Barack Obama.  Companies have gone on defense due to Obama, and the stark contrast of their renewed financial health, having gone on defense, relative to where they were in 2008 is what has driven stock prices.  Multiples still suck.  It is the multiple which is the report card of policymakers.  Investors today will pay no more for a dollar of corporate earnings than they would have four years ago.  Equities are doing well only because most professional investors see a bloodbath in Treasuries on the horizon.

UPDATE:  Treasuries are up and stocks are down the morning after, exactly as expected - economic prospects are poor, run from risk.


Blogger Heather said...

thanks for the financial advice. I am in the lucky position of being a Canadian. Canada is slowly but surely turning to the Pacific. Many don't like the sight of agreements with China, esp for our commodities, but as I have said: Canada has refused to develop its land. 70 years ago, the US built the Alaska Hwy (because of Pearl Harbour, etc), and we have not gone beyond 10 miles on either side. I put this to one of my nieces, and her response was, well, we have to protect our environment.

Canada has been dominated by the British Empire, then by the American hegemony... and now, we will bow to China. Great. At least the Chinese don't fool around with Muslims, they just shoot them.

You are right: Romney ran a good campaign. This whole event is about America's character.

12:41 AM  
Blogger Donny Baseball said...

There's not alot Canada can do, geopolitically, with a population of 33 million. Resources are not a guarantee, you have to have a significant population.

I have to sleep on it for several days, but I think we just saw the world change...and for the worse. It's bad, but I am just not sure how bad at this early juncture...

12:46 AM  
Blogger Heather said...

Canada has a small population, and sits on a large landmass. Yukon comprises 250,000 square miles, and has a population of less than 30,000, and depends almost solely on the Fed Govt. You have got to see our Canada Multiplex. Whitehorse is booming, our problem is not enough housing. And of course, we have to provide subsidized housing for the old folks and the needy and etc etc.

There are new mines going great guns, from Chinese money. And through the North the Chinese are investing in minerals, up until now, under the radar, but there is now a Canadian/Chinese agreement being hammered out...

Our enviros are unhappy with the idea that China is going to be our new overlords. They exist in a world where having the US in charge has meant, really, that we SEEM to be autonomous. Well, we aren't, and ever were. As Steyn has said, the new world will be quite different than now.

As to the Blacks, well, of course they vote for bigger and better government, because their middle class DEPENDS on those jobs.. really, the Fed and State governments are really affirmative action programs writ large, and always were.

3:47 PM  
Blogger Donny Baseball said...

You have it exactly right, Big Government is just welfare for our under-to-middle class minorities in another form. Frankly I would prefer we just pay them and let them stay home and play video games. As it is they sit in an office and have to DO something, which is usually to say NO to some minor request or provide surly and atrocious customer service.

11:31 AM  

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