Obama, the State of Play and Some Self Back-Patting

Well, I haven't patted myself on the back in awhile so let me reiterate that - 2.5 years ago mind you - I said this election season would have 10% unemployment and $4 gas, thus burying the Obama fairy tale under a mountain of economic bad news (and don't gimme no BS about unemployment being only 8%, we all know that it's really 10+%).

I think the two principal barriers to Obama's re-election are going to be energy prices and unemployment. In my opinion, it is a better than 50% chance that the nation will go into the 2012 election cycle with $4+ per gal. gasoline, and 10+% unemployment. This is not mindless Obama=Jimmy Carter reductionism.

I predicted a "one term rally" in the stock market.

Secondarily, I think this is good for the stock market. The economy will muddle through for the remainder of this year and into next, but the further Obama slides and the lower his chances at reelection get, I think we will see an inversely proportional growth in economic optimism. The more it looks like Obama is a goner, the more American business leaders will feel like a giant weight is being lifted, the more entrepreneurs will feel like the sky is clearing. I predict a rough inverse correlation from here on in between Obama's poll numbers and the stock market - call it the "one term rally."

Stocks have been hitting a stride as of late, and, of course, the sycophantic pro-Obama media is playing it up and trying to give the Lightworker credit for the rally.  Readers know what I think of that notion.

And finally, I predicted a spectacular implosion of Obama's re-election effort.

While I predicted that Obama would meltdown almost on the day that he took office, we sit on the cusp of his re-election battle and he has stubbornly hung on to stay in contention, at least superficially.  So I am making another prediction, actually more of an update, I guess, to my original meltdown trajectory.  So here goes.  The Obama presidency/campaign/phenomenon will shortly implode.  Yes, "implode", as in spectacularly fail and wind up in ruins.

That prediction has not come unambiguously true, but the foundation has certainly been laid.  I recently noted these developments:

- Romney out-raises Obama by $60 million over two months and has a cash advantage over Obama
- Tina Brown runs "Hit the Road Barack" on the cover of Newsweek
- It is leaked that Hillary turned down the VP slot AND urged a reluctant Obama to strike bin Laden
- Joe Biden turns the Gaffe-o-meter up to a Spinal Tap-ish 11
- It is leaked that there is turmoil in the Obama Campaign HQ
- The MSM shines a light on Obama's brutally negative campaigning
- The Romney-Ryan ticket is playing to packed venues everywhere it goes
- gas prices are rising again and there are reports of a desperation tapping of the SPR
- a Cook County poll showed Obama's lead slipping in Cook County, IL
- and OF COURSE, on July 13th Obama gave his now infamous "You Didn't Build That" speech

We can add to that list the shockingly inept and revealing DNC platform debacle, the humiliating retreat from the 73,000 seat stadium venue for his nomination acceptance speech, the tepid at best and often highly critical reaction to that speech, and now the terrible jobs report released this morning.  I suspect that all this could lead to some bad poll results in the next couple of days. And bad polls often beget even worse polls.  Throw in the finally unleashed Romney airwaves assault funded by his sizable war chest and you're potentially looking at something very close to yours truly's predicted implosion.