Go Long Ford, Short Oil

It is always good to have a few reliable contrary indicators to supplement or confirm your own thoughts on a particular subject. Like the CIA. They don't think Iran is making nuclear weapons, so you can pretty much bet that they are. On the economy, there's Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley. When he's a bear on the US, go long the US.

Today brings news of GM's massive corporate bet on persistant high gas prices. GM is my contrary indicator for smart management moves. So I am betting on a moderation in gas prices over the next several years. Five years hence, gas prices may not be low, but they could quite likely be merely reasonable. Although it looks bad now for gas prices, there is a logical scenario for lower prices. Even so, logical scenarios hardly ever play out according to script. It will be rogue or unforeseen developments that are likely to carry the day if gas prices do moderate over the next several years. Black (Gold) Swan anyone?

Although, good call on GM's part to kill the Hummer. I defer to no man in my appreciation for the blessed gift that is hydrocarbon technology and they will have to pry my cold dead hands off my SUV's steering wheel, but the Hummer was an atrocity, an assault on the senses, an offense to decorousness. Good riddance.