Friday, August 10, 2012

Sigh. More Silly "Obama Good for Stocks" Silliness

Sigh.  Here is that ridiculous "Obama Has Been Great for Stocks" meme again.  I addressed this here.  To the extent that you can say that Obama has had any effect on stocks it is because his popularity has gone down consistently from the day he took office and his power has gone down correspondingly as well, most notably in November of 2010. 

There is too much at play to make a solid connection, but my educated guess/opinion (I have been investing in stocks professionally for 10 years and investing personally for nearly 20) is this:  Obama has scared the pants off of business leaders, thus they have retrenched, shutting down investment and hoarding cash.  The result is that companies are actually in the best financial health they have been in for ages.  Simultaneously, government debt is slowly being revealed as not quite the "risk free" asset that inane financial theory has regarded it as for decades.  As companies get healthier, governments are getting sicker, thus there is a small shift to stocks relative to bonds among professional investors.  (I can't say the same for the retail investor.  Mutual fund flows have been overwhelmingly out of equities and into bonds, essentially out of what is cheap and into what is expensive.  Individual investors are setting themselves up for a financial ass-reaming of epic proportions.)  This small shift is what the punditocracy is lamely attributing to the Lightworker.

If anything, as I predicted years ago, stocks are up because Obama is down.

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