Tuesday, February 28, 2012

CNBC's Wishful Thinking

Speaking of the MSM trying to rejuvenate Obama...check out this CNBC story, which I think gets it exactly backwards.

Markets Start to Anticipate Obama Victory in November

As I have laid out before, I think the market is anticipating one of two outcomes, both of which it sees as better than the prevailing situation: 1) Obama loses, or 2) Obama wins but Dems lose the Senate. I actually think the market is focusing in on the very real possibility of #1 and I have said so. The MSM, when it is not engaging in outright wishful thinking, is falling into an analytical trap that equates Romney's performance in a handful of states' primaries with his potential performance against Obama in the general election. I have said, when Romney gets the nomination, the money will flow in from the American business community and he will wage a devastating bombing campaign against Obama's economic ineptitude and foreign policy fecklessness. He will remind America that we gambled in 2008 and ask them if they feel they've won that gamble? And he will have a good shot at beating Obama.

To the extent that markets are factoring in US politics (and not European sovereign fears receding), that is what they are thinking. I don't know a soul in this business who thinks that the prospect of a another four years of Obama is driving markets higher. People may want Obama to be re-elected for personal reasons, but nobody makes the case that Obama, and Obama alone, is good for markets.

And why look solely to the stock market? The Treasury market is vastly larger and more significant. What is that market telling us? It's anticipating continued feeble growth. Why is CNBC not pinning that market judgement on Obama's odds? Huh? Thought so.

UPDATE: So the media has been lamely saying "Look at this bozo, Romney can't win his home state." Well, he won his home state. The MSM has been, "Well, conservatives are ambivalent." Sure, maybe, but Larry Kudlow says he gets it, the WSJ says he's hit upon something he can shine with...

Gosh, and it is early yet. Yeah, Mitt's not quite a Reaganite, Three-Legged Dreamboat for sure, but don't you think the MSM has got him a little misunderstood and/or underestimated in their desire to squash him??


Post a Comment

<< Home