Cold War Against Iran Getting Warmer
Last December I said "spring/summer 2008, it's game on." So, last week an Israeli minister hints that Israel might do the dirty work that needs to be done. Today, Bush is throwing some stepped up sanctions and saying that all options remain open. Do I think that bombers will be entering Iranian airspace soon? I give it a 10% chance. The game that does appear to be on is the last final aggressive chessboard moves of Bush's presidency. His policy toward Iran has been a failure, at least on the surface, but I advise to withold judgment. I have paid close attention to this President's policy and tactics over the last eight years and I have detected a recurring pattern. The administration tends to pursue a policy that goes under- or unarticulated. It then receives enormous criticism from all quarters. Its supporters, who think they detect the logic in it but are bewildered at the lack of promotion by the administration, start to second guess. Then, after everyone has positioned themselves farther out on the limb (his political enemies being farthest out on that limb), the President saws off that limb. This could turn out to be an apt analysis for Bush's Iran policy. He might very well have worked quietly to bring Iran to the edge of collapse and will bequeath the next POTUS a feeble and conciliatory Iran or an Iran on the verge of internal upheaval. (Incidentally, this is one reason I think that history will be kind to GWB's presidency. As his policies play out over time, many will be revealed to be more successful than originally thought, and the fact that he pursued them against a ripe tide of criticism will count favorably in the evaluation of his leadership.)
Let's review. 1) We've been building up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve well beyond necessary levels so there is no "oil weapon" and then we stop precisely when the spread between sweet adn sour crude is widening. This policy has been a success - Iran can't seem to find buyers for its stinky, low grade crude. 2) Iranian influence in Iraq has been neutralized and their cards revealed. We let Iran get away with all sorts of shenanigans in Iraq for five years, getting a close look at their tactics and weapons. Then all of a sudden we stomp on Iranian proxies in Iraq and crush them in a matter of months like a bug. 3) Syria might be in the process of taking a bribe - Hezbollah cakewalked into greater influence in Lebanon and Israel and Syria are telling the world they are quietly talking - to walk away from its support of Iran.
All of this is very interesting. We may not see the mini-Cold War being waged against Iran turn hot, but it sure will get warmer. Look for more pressure applied to Iran's refined gasoline vulnerability, more pressure on its financial institutions, and one or two special surprises over the summer of the Cold War variety.
Let's review. 1) We've been building up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve well beyond necessary levels so there is no "oil weapon" and then we stop precisely when the spread between sweet adn sour crude is widening. This policy has been a success - Iran can't seem to find buyers for its stinky, low grade crude. 2) Iranian influence in Iraq has been neutralized and their cards revealed. We let Iran get away with all sorts of shenanigans in Iraq for five years, getting a close look at their tactics and weapons. Then all of a sudden we stomp on Iranian proxies in Iraq and crush them in a matter of months like a bug. 3) Syria might be in the process of taking a bribe - Hezbollah cakewalked into greater influence in Lebanon and Israel and Syria are telling the world they are quietly talking - to walk away from its support of Iran.
All of this is very interesting. We may not see the mini-Cold War being waged against Iran turn hot, but it sure will get warmer. Look for more pressure applied to Iran's refined gasoline vulnerability, more pressure on its financial institutions, and one or two special surprises over the summer of the Cold War variety.
posted by Donny Baseball at 2:57 PM
5 Comments:
President Bush Tells the World he is in Charge of the world. No kidding!
And, you are right! We have very bad things, and we know how to use them. We used them against Japan. Boy did our nukes kill a lot of those Japanese people. We will do it again. We used some of those bad things against Iraq.
Iran and the rest of the world better learn soon, we mean business!
Israel has nuclear bombs, and we gave them nuclear capable airplanes to use the bombs. By the way, we helped Israel to put 200 of the nukes together. Israel is our only friend.
By the way, what is this idea that we have a bad economy, expensive college loans, few professional jobs, and crumpling infrastructure? Forget about it!
We have to worry about Iran; you know they are working on nuclear fuel cycle to make electricity. They must stop it. If they would ever need nuclear fuel, we will sell them at our price and our time. You know nuclear fuel is the oil of tomorrow. We want to keep our own fuel cartel. Wait until their oil wells go dry sometimes before 2025, they will come to us begging for nuclear fuel, i.e. if we would allow them to have any nuclear reactor.
Plus, our great President Bush wants to revisit the 1953 regime change and put in place someone like the old Shah. We told him what we expected of him. Shah knew what we wanted, and he did it. No questions asked. Good old days.
Last, Israelis have told us not to talk to the Iranians. You know, talking will do no good; either we win or they loose, all the same to us. The President says: we are in charge, these rogue nations better learn to follow our rules.
You asked for my idea, please read [http://straveler-myamerica.blogspot.com/2008/05/american-foreign-policy-and-world-new.html]: American Foreign Policy and the World: a New Direction. But, wait until next year; the ideas are not approved by this Administration.
lebanonwire? is it credible?
I think so. I have followed the Iran storage issue for awhile and talked to many knowledgeable sources and the lebanonwire story reiterates pretty much the same analysis that oil pros and iran watchers tell me. it is not so much that LW has the scoop, but that the scoop is contained very well summed up in that one spot for handy reference.
Myamerica-
every once in a while I get comment like yours, and I usually ignore it b/c it is pretty obvious that the commenter is usually a nutty college kid. I don't know where to begin with your analysis - it is a hodgepodge of ad hominem, bald assertion lacking factual basis, and a deep lack of understanding of historical realities and strategic considerations. We used nukes in Iraq? Really? Where is your evidence of this? Our economy is bad? Please explain to me what metrics and analysis you use to support your claim of a bad economy? Do you have any idea why - the strategic considerations - we dropped nukes on Japan (and who did it)? Do you have any idea what % of the population of Iran would gladly take the Shah back in lieu of the mullahs? Few professional jobs? What is Sam Hill are you talking about? When I have more time (and hopefully a bottle of wine in me) I might address it, but for now buddy you ain't even in the game.
Dear donny baseball you said:” We used nukes in Iraq? Really?"
Where did I say we used nukes in Iraq? What I said was "We used some of those bad things against Iraq."
About Iranian and Shah: please read Diplomacy with Iran [http://straveler-myamerica.blogspot.com/2008/05/diplomacy-with-iran.html].
You have a good idea, let us ask some of the mullahs to join us talking together and having a great bottle of our California wine and Iranian Shiraz wine. I said before:” Our national interests dictate that we start a frank dialogue with Iranian people and reestablish diplomatic relations. The negotiations are not between President George Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is between American and Iranian people. Both nations have competent diplomatic corps." You and I know war is much uncivilized.
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