Nobel Economist Confirms Everything I've Been Saying
Can I just say that nearly everything that Henninger tells us that Nobel laureate Robert Lucas says, readers of NBfPB have heard me say before...
Henninger: "What discomfits [Lucas] is the similarities in the policy choices that accompanied both delayed recoveries. By 1934, the Depression's banking crisis had been resolved, "yet full recovery was still seven years away," he said in the Milliman lecture. GDP stayed more than 10% below trend. "Why?" The answer, he says, was growth-suppressing policies, such as the Smoot-Hawley tariff, cartelization, unionization and, "most important but hardest to measure, FDR's demonization of business."
Baseball: "How many times have I said we are making the same mistakes of the Great Depression, the same policy mistakes - protectionism, raising taxes on nearly every type of business activity, regulating massive swaths of the economy??? How many times. Well now the similarities are getting just downright eerie as well as scary. It is as if the Democrats are reading the history of the Great Depression and doing every single thing that deepened the Great Depression again, on purpose."
Henninger: "[Lucas] credits the current Federal Reserve with avoiding the mistakes of the Depression, properly acting this time as the lender of last resort. With the financial side essentially in order and the recovery stalled, Prof. Lucas sees public-policy analogies to the 1930s: "The likelihood of much higher taxes, focused on 'the rich'; medical legislation that promises a large increase in the role of government; financial legislation that assigns vast, poorly defined responsibilities to the Fed and others."
Baseball: "Government can crater the system again through its vendetta of regulation. ObamaCare is today's NRA. We have small trade wars smoldering, threatening to burst wide open. Taxes are on their way up to highly distortive levels. And now we are on a campaign to destroy our best capital markets institutions."
and...
"We have, fortunately thanks to Ben Bernanke, passed the first test - we have not contracted the money supply bringing on defaltion."
Henninger: "What discomfits [Lucas] is the similarities in the policy choices that accompanied both delayed recoveries. By 1934, the Depression's banking crisis had been resolved, "yet full recovery was still seven years away," he said in the Milliman lecture. GDP stayed more than 10% below trend. "Why?" The answer, he says, was growth-suppressing policies, such as the Smoot-Hawley tariff, cartelization, unionization and, "most important but hardest to measure, FDR's demonization of business."
Baseball: "How many times have I said we are making the same mistakes of the Great Depression, the same policy mistakes - protectionism, raising taxes on nearly every type of business activity, regulating massive swaths of the economy??? How many times. Well now the similarities are getting just downright eerie as well as scary. It is as if the Democrats are reading the history of the Great Depression and doing every single thing that deepened the Great Depression again, on purpose."
Henninger: "[Lucas] credits the current Federal Reserve with avoiding the mistakes of the Depression, properly acting this time as the lender of last resort. With the financial side essentially in order and the recovery stalled, Prof. Lucas sees public-policy analogies to the 1930s: "The likelihood of much higher taxes, focused on 'the rich'; medical legislation that promises a large increase in the role of government; financial legislation that assigns vast, poorly defined responsibilities to the Fed and others."
Baseball: "Government can crater the system again through its vendetta of regulation. ObamaCare is today's NRA. We have small trade wars smoldering, threatening to burst wide open. Taxes are on their way up to highly distortive levels. And now we are on a campaign to destroy our best capital markets institutions."
and...
"We have, fortunately thanks to Ben Bernanke, passed the first test - we have not contracted the money supply bringing on defaltion."
posted by Donny Baseball at 11:18 AM
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