Thursday, April 14, 2011

Pelosi In Safe House?

My left-field prediction for 2011 was that Nancy Pelosi would challenge Obama in the primary for the 2012 nomination. It is a long shot but it makes intuitive sense - hard core progressives are somewhat disillusioned and might peel off if they perceive Obama as moderating/selling out progressive policies merely to hold onto office (as opposed to lying to the country that one is a moderate and enacting a progressive agenda, which is what progressives understood well and thoroughly accepted the first time around). This would create an opening for a hard progressive politician with a national profile and a developed fundraising apparatus. All that is needed is the gumption (arrogance?) to do it. Nancy Pelosi is all of that, and I speculated that her arrogance and inability to countenance her demoted status would drive her to run to the left of Obama. Well, there is an alternate explanation - that she's been put in a safe house by the Clintonites now in charge of the Obama presidency (note Gene Sperling's role here). But her marginalization at the hands of hte Clintonites (versus the voters) and my hypothesis are not mutually exclusive, in fact they are self-reinforcing. Her power-mad arrogance, coupled with her marginalization could prompt her to run all the more. Very interesting to see how this develops.

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