To Hire or Not to Hire?

Sir Lawrence justifiably takes a bow for his early and correct bullishness, or mustard seedishness if you will, on the occasion of John Paulson publicizing his bullishness. While I generally agree, Sir Lawrence ends with this: "Rising corporate profits equals rising jobs in the future. If businesses are profitable, they will hire. Bank on it. After all, we witnessed such a steep falloff in employment because businesses were so unprofitable." On this point, I do not agree, and this puts me at odds also with perhaps the most prescient market caller of them all (note the date).

I concede there will be some hiring, there always is, but not enough to move the needle or make this feel like a real recovery to the average worker. Here is my case as to why:
1) Businesses really like their new level of leanness, they are going to enjoy producing more with less for a while, because that means nice profits;
2) Businesses are focused on deleveraging rather than hiring. No business that had a near death experience in 2008/09 is going to put themselves in that position again;
3) Alot of hiring will go overseas. The USA has become much less business friendly and stifling. Other countries want the jobs badly and are doing what it takes to get them. For a US multi-national hiring abroad versus in the US, all else being equal, is a no-brainer - abroad;
4) Business leaders loathe the Obama administration and the Pelosicrats. While ultimately they will do what makes business sense, they are not looking to do anything that will reflect well on the Democrats' management of the economy. Some have told me that hiring plans are on hold until after November;
5) Frankly, businesses are still scared. They have no idea how much more bad stuff is coming down the pike. ObamaCare looked dead and the next thing you know companies are taking hundreds of millions of dollars of write-downs. Obama is sinking in the polls, but potentially disastrous financial reform looks set to pass. The fact is that even though this government is wildly unpopular, all of the prosperity damaging legislation seems to be getting passed anyway. Cap and trade is dead, huh? Businesses ain't banking on that rosy thought right now, the evidence says to remain fearful.

So, yes there will be some hiring, but it'll be a drop in the bucket. We'll barely feel it.