Rehabilitation of the Household Survey

Back in 2004 and 2005 there was a bit of a tug o' war between the establishment survey of employment and the household survey of employment. They are two different things and tell us slightly different things about the employment landscape. True market analysts, who are trying to make money, understand the differences and approach the data with political agnosticism. Not so pundits and the MSM. The difference and the interplay between the two surveys was shamelessly ignored and manipulated to score political points a few years ago. The key talking point on the left throughout 2004 was the "jobless recovery" which was meant to discredit the 2003 tax cuts and George W. Bush going into the November election; and, if you were out to bash the economy, the establishment survey numbers were for you. Big company employment lags the more informal sector and tax cuts spur more entrepreneurial expansion, which would tend to show up in household survey. So the MSM ignored the positive signs inherent in the household data and focused exclusively on the establishment data. Conversely, if you wanted to look for positives and proof that the tax cuts were working, the household survey was where to look, and rightward media outlets were the only place you could learn even a smidge about the household data. (Some background here.)
The US economy is a convoy of giant tankers and small speed boats. When they all decide to make a turn, you can see it in the speed boats first, well before it becomes evident that the tankers have turned. Ironically, today, the political motivations are shifted. The fawning, Obama-entralled MSM is likely desperate to illuminate the leading indicators and small glimmers that indicate the economy is turning around. Natually the MSM is likely to flip the 2004 strategy on its head and begin to emphasize the household survey and studiously put the establishment survey in context, which they utterly failed to do in 2004. Look for the household survey to get heavy play along with assertions that this is all related to the "stimulus package" and/or anything at all the Barry O has done. Watch too for the establishment survey to get ruthlessly parsed and qualified.