More Prosperity Found in the Economy's Seat Cushions

It's official. All of those pundits and even professional economists who used the payroll employment survey to make the claim of a "jobless recovery" and then use that to criticize the 2003 tax cuts, were wrong. Wrong. Plain and simple. These tax cut critics steadfastly refused to give any weight to the household survey despite its consistently raising red flags about accuracy of the payroll data. They clung fervently to the payroll data and the payroll data alone and screamed from the highest hilltops "JOBLESS RECOVERY!!!!" It became a political mantra, an accepted media talking point, even a popular mythology (in my daily life I've encountered numerous people who couldn't even accurately state the unemployment rate talk about a jobless recovery). And it was all wrong.

You might be inclined to shrug it off and say "good enough for government work," but these data are so influential. So much that affects us turns on these numbers. It is infuriating that they are so wrong so often.

More here.