Thursday, June 21, 2007

Merrill Lynch Talked Down From The Ledge

Merrill Lynch smartly decided to hold on to the securities that it seized as collateral for loans from two busted Bear Stearns hedge funds. No sense in dumping these CDOs on the market, but I think what was really at work here is that the industry at large helpfully suggested to Merrill that the current political environment is not an auspicious time to showcase more negative fallout from the subprime lending crisis. The Sausage Factory is currently debating the "Blackstone Tax" in addition to substantially higher and punitive tax increases on private equity and hedge fund compensation, protectionist measures against global trade, higher taxes on energy producers, a 4.3% surtax on high income earners to provide AMT relief, and countless other anti-business, anti-growth policies. Now is hardly the time to draw negative attention to these derivatives markets and investment vehicles. The political risk to economic growth and the investment climate is too great. Whether or not these CDOs are toxic or not, best to take one for the team and lay low. Don't give farm country populist goofballs like Grassley and Baucus any more ammunition to crusade against what they don't understand.

UPDATE: There is alot to this story. One interesting twist is that Bear Stearns's rival banks were probably happy to let Bear twist alone in the wind as comeuppance for its crappy move over the LTCM affair years ago.

5 Comments:

Blogger Tax Shelter said...

If these CDOs are so illiquid, then how could MER allow 10 to 40 times leverage? It feels like the Bear fund had to go outside of BSC because it couldn't get the kind of leverage it wanted in house.

5:29 PM  
Blogger Donny Baseball said...

These CDO funds spiralled out of control due to competition - performance brought assets, which begat greater leverage to compete, which upped the pressure to perform which upped the pressure to use more leverage. When you are competing to manage $6B, you do crazy things. ML lent only a portion to BS so they thought their exposire was limited yet all these things were correlated to a narrow slice of the economy - the subprime mortgage sector - so when everybody is involved there are no buyers in distress and the loses multiply. All the big names are caught up in this - GS, Lehman, Morgan - most are just still hiding it well.

12:29 AM  
Blogger Tax Shelter said...

Do you think the PE firms will eventually run into the same problem, i.e., ever higher leverage guarantees that the buyout boom will end badly. Is a PE bust inevitable?

7:41 AM  
Blogger Donny Baseball said...

Who can say but it certainly conceivable. There is already big pressure to put PE assets to work, still competition for deals and financing costs are rising so deals will be done with increasingly tight margins of safety. Definitely there will be some dumb deals done. Whether that "blows up" the industry is a hard call. These guys would love get Sarbox reformed and foist their investments right back on the public before that happens.

9:21 AM  
Blogger Tax Shelter said...

The next step will be to raise the overall tax on private buyout partnerships, even though there’s no intent to go public. Former Clinton Treasury secretary Robert Rubin suggests more than doubling capital-gains taxes on these partnerships, telling a Washington conference that the lower rate on capital gains hasn’t contributed one iota to the economy. - Kudlow

It's hard to believe Rubin went to Harvard and ran GS. He has to be one of the luckiest guys ever. What does the Black Swan say about guys like Rubin?

8:50 PM  

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