Like the Pope's Hell, The UAW's Pickle is Real

I said that the UAW feels a deep sense of dread in its bones that what happened to the steel industry will happen to them. Well, no longer need that fear emanate from their collective gut, it is now on paper in black and white for their eyes to behold.

Naturally this is the first offer in what will be a negotiation process, but it does represent a kernel of a radical, convulsive end of the status quo for the Big Three. There is still enormous room for maneuvering here, but Cerberus & Co. could walk away, forcing the ball into GM's hands to save Delphi. Although unlikely, GM could in turn take a pass on saving Delphi's bacon. The UAW would then have to decide if it really wants to strike as a bankrupt Delphi rips up its labor agreements, thereby spreading the pain upstream to the big OEMs. Given that things are so bad for Ford, GM and Chrysler, a strike at Delphi could make things for the OEMs so bad that they would be more inclined to initiate radical surgery on themselves. At some point, a scorched earth strategy has only marginal costs. I think a Delphi strike gets the Big Three to that point.

The UAW has a terrible hand here. The world has changed and they need to recognize that the status quo does not entail a future for them, and they need to sign on for a future, the best future they can negotiate, like the steelworkers did.