Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Yergin's Peak

Bloomberg reports on a new report out by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the firm run by respected energy expert and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin. Basically, CERA says that peak oil is 30 years in the future (for those who believe in Hubbert Peak). The report also claims that production declines will be slow and gradual and bolsters what we already know to be true in the energy business, that advancing technology and evolving political situations mean we can find and extract ever increasing amounts of energy.

Yergin is disliked by the Peak Oil crowd and they are always out to discredit him. The Bloomberg article cites a guy at ASPO who takes a putative swipe at Yergin by claiming that Yergin's research is a scheme to make money and that he won't reveal his data. Well, YEAH! Yergin runs a business and presumably he is endeavoring to have it be profitable. How does one run a profitable research business? By producing research that is insightful and accurate to an extent that clients are willing to pay for it. And Yergin does. So why would Yergin give his data and analytical methodolgy away for free when he can make a very nice living by selling it?

More thoughts on Peak Oil here and here.

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