Bush Appoints Paulson Treasury Secretary
The first reaction I had to this news was extreme annoyance at the WSJ for reporting last Friday that Don Evans was the leading candidate for Treasury Secretary. I had to drink no less than 5 extra Newcastle Browns and a whole bottle extra of Aussie Shiraz beyond normal intake levels over the weekend to deal with the stress of what looked like another Harriet Miers moment. I have no beef with Don Evans except that he would have been an incredibly uninspired choice and another wasted opportunity/clue that GWB has dropped the reins.
We shouldn't delve too deeply into why Bush picked Paulson, it is a relatively easy one - he's the best player in the draft so to speak. Still, the choice is even better than it looks - the economy is about the only thing that the Republicans have going for them going into the '06 elections and beyond. So they need a genuine policy stud to keep the economy on solid footing as long as possible. That means, principally, debunking and demolishing the numerous bad policy ideas that are fomenting around DC these days from windfall profits taxes to price gouging legislation to trade protectionism. It also means, advocating for new ideas that could extend the gains, like Sarbanes-Oxley reform and tax reform. And the Administration also just needs a new spokesman for the economy, Bush is tainted and will never get one drop of credit for the economy and thus is an ineffectual voice for this message. Paulson is both a new face and deep well of credibility. I wouldn't even be surprised if Paulson stays on past Bush if Republicans keep the White House in 2008.
The next critical question is why Paulson even took the job. I think the media's general take is accurate, that Paulson was given the promise of really truly being in charge of economic policy. But is that enough? Probably not. I have the feeling that Paulson sees his role in a larger context than serving Bush. I think he will take on a role much like Robert Rubin where, whether he is serving in office or not, he is the economic poobah of his party's establishment. Rubin is still a huge player and is working behind the scenes, launching the Hamilton Project for example, to craft the economic message that seeks to propel the Democrats in '06 and '08. If the ideas behind the Hamilton Project take root in the soil behind resurgent Democrats, much of the progress that Bush has made in convincing the American people (remember GWB's failure was purely legislative, but the electorate is on board with the idea that Social Security and the tax code need to be reformed) of the need for big entitlement-reducing reforms will be lost. So Bob Rubin's message, and the policy planks embodied in the Hamilton Project, need to be countered and done so in a big and thoughtful way by people with as serious a reputation as a Bob Rubin. That is how I think Paulson sees himself, as the guy to do that. At some point the stars will align and the time will be right for Social Security reform and Tax reform, it just won't be under the Presidency of George W. Bush. It could very well be under the Presidency of some Republican who wins the White House in 2008. Alternatively, if we have four years of a Democrat piloting the economy according to the Hamilton Project and Bob Rubin, entitlement reform and pro-growth advocates will have to fight these battles all over from the beginning. Paulson is here to secure the gains and seek further progress for when the time is right. IMHO.
We shouldn't delve too deeply into why Bush picked Paulson, it is a relatively easy one - he's the best player in the draft so to speak. Still, the choice is even better than it looks - the economy is about the only thing that the Republicans have going for them going into the '06 elections and beyond. So they need a genuine policy stud to keep the economy on solid footing as long as possible. That means, principally, debunking and demolishing the numerous bad policy ideas that are fomenting around DC these days from windfall profits taxes to price gouging legislation to trade protectionism. It also means, advocating for new ideas that could extend the gains, like Sarbanes-Oxley reform and tax reform. And the Administration also just needs a new spokesman for the economy, Bush is tainted and will never get one drop of credit for the economy and thus is an ineffectual voice for this message. Paulson is both a new face and deep well of credibility. I wouldn't even be surprised if Paulson stays on past Bush if Republicans keep the White House in 2008.
The next critical question is why Paulson even took the job. I think the media's general take is accurate, that Paulson was given the promise of really truly being in charge of economic policy. But is that enough? Probably not. I have the feeling that Paulson sees his role in a larger context than serving Bush. I think he will take on a role much like Robert Rubin where, whether he is serving in office or not, he is the economic poobah of his party's establishment. Rubin is still a huge player and is working behind the scenes, launching the Hamilton Project for example, to craft the economic message that seeks to propel the Democrats in '06 and '08. If the ideas behind the Hamilton Project take root in the soil behind resurgent Democrats, much of the progress that Bush has made in convincing the American people (remember GWB's failure was purely legislative, but the electorate is on board with the idea that Social Security and the tax code need to be reformed) of the need for big entitlement-reducing reforms will be lost. So Bob Rubin's message, and the policy planks embodied in the Hamilton Project, need to be countered and done so in a big and thoughtful way by people with as serious a reputation as a Bob Rubin. That is how I think Paulson sees himself, as the guy to do that. At some point the stars will align and the time will be right for Social Security reform and Tax reform, it just won't be under the Presidency of George W. Bush. It could very well be under the Presidency of some Republican who wins the White House in 2008. Alternatively, if we have four years of a Democrat piloting the economy according to the Hamilton Project and Bob Rubin, entitlement reform and pro-growth advocates will have to fight these battles all over from the beginning. Paulson is here to secure the gains and seek further progress for when the time is right. IMHO.
posted by Donny Baseball at 3:49 PM
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