Dealing with Iran: On to the Next Phase

In my estimation we have moved into the next phase of dealing with Iran. During the phase just past, Iran took advantage of the long diplomatic string that the Europeans were destined to play out. Such was preditable. The West has to offer the carrot first. We simply must travel through the carrot phase as a necessary step to reach the stick phase. This is not just our modus operandi, it is grounded in our moral view. (While this seems obvious, we take it for granted that is the way we approach things. Other cultures are not as wedded to exploring conciliatory options. I doubt we will ever see the Chinese travel through the carrot phase in their dealings with Taiwan.) If you were Iran, you would be smart to ride out this phase, conceding nothing, because the reality is that there would be no consequences. And they have.

Now the West has to see how far Iran will bend in the face of consequences. Thus the rhetoric has been slightly escalated. Ehud Olmert has made has debut as the heir to Sharon by saying that Iran simply must not be allowed to acquire nukes. Rummy has now come out and said that the US military isn't stretched and that he's got plenty of dry powder. And we have gotten the Russians and the Chinese, at least for now, punting on standing by their trading pal Iran. So a Security Council referral is closer at hand and the likeliest military players are starting to talk military options. So now the consequences are beginning to be assembled for Iran to weigh and do the national interest calculus. Who knows how long this phase will take, months definitely, a year or more maybe. My guess is that it all hinges on the pace of events in Iraq - how long it takes to train the target number of Iraq security forces, thus freeing up a chunk of US military capacity.