Tuesday, November 08, 2005

I'll Try Not To Break My Arm...

patting myself on the back, but my string of posts on the Euro vs. USD and the housing market are starting to look pretty good. Toll Brothers came out today and said that housing demand is softening, which is the big story in the stock market today. Also, the Euro, which busted through resistance (I hate saying that because I hate technical analysis, but that is the best way to describe it) on the downside on Friday, continues its freefall today. We are not far from the $1.15 level that I predicted. I stand by $1.10 for sometimes in 2006. What will be the catalyst? Who the hell knows. Perhaps the French will remain intransigent on farm subsidies in trade talks in Hong Kong in December and the US finds a way to band with countries like Brazil and India to get a free trade agreement that isolates France. Or maybe we have Italy implode politically. Berlusconi is hanging by a thread. Or maybe these "youths" or "racaille" or whatever you want to call them (just not "Muslims") will continue to be a thorny problem.


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