Still...Obama Down, Stocks Up

There's been alot of angst in market commentary lately about the tenuousness or inexplicable nature of recent stock market gains.  Tenuous maybe, but inexplicable?  Now, let me throw in the caveat that the stock market is a mighty complex organism that factors in myriad information.  Having said that, I've put forth the theory before that policy and politics has had an outsized influence on the market in recent times.  I've also advanced the theory that, in general, what is bad for Barack Obama is good for the stock market and vice versa many many times.  I backed this up with data here.


That data set was through June 4, 2012.  I thought I'd go back and update the data set to see where we stand on this notion.  Here is the chart from 6/5/12 through recently.

Aside from the fancy new formatting that comes with a newer version of Excel, we can see that correlation has mostly held.  As Obama's popularity stagnated the market rose.  It then had a selloff as the media fomented a faux Obama revival in the runup to the election (the election corresponds to roughly 110 on the horizontal axis).  Of course, Obama 2.0 stumbled right out of the gate with myriad scandals (remember all those?  NSA Spying, IRS targeting the Tea Party, Benghazi) and has persisted with its garden variety ineptitude from Syria to healthcare.gov.  This stretch after the glow of his re-election wore off has resulted in a steady loss of popularity accompanied by a steady rise in the S&P 500 index.

So that's two graphs.  Let's combine the two into one for the entire Obama experience to date...
Dunno, still looks like a pretty solid relationship to me.  So with the likely continued troubles of Obamacare looming, I'm not ready to get all panicky about the stock market...