Obama Officially Underwater, Despite Being Headed There for Some Time

So, a new AP poll is saying, for the first time, that a majority of Americans think President Obama should not be re-elected. This should not be a surprise, after all, you follow this polling data series, you know the Lightworker's approval trajectory has been, almost without exclusion, one way. (Read about those minor exclusions here and here.)

Just a reminder, I predicted Obama's meltdown back in February of 2009. As well, I predicted the "stimulus" would be a disaster for the country among many other things of which I will remind you all later. But let me return to the root of Obama's failure - here and here is the analysis I conducted early on that spelled out why Obama could have not have been anything but a failure.

Finally, and this is not a blunder but rather a fundamental flaw, Obama's legislative support is only as good as his public sheen. The reason he had to stack his administration with Clintonites is that he had no decent network to speak of. His limited experience in government, and life actually, has left him lacking in broad and deep connections to people who can achieve things and stand by him. His quick rise to popularity and electoral promise has attracted a cadre of government and business types to fill the ranks now, but they do so for the sake of Democratic power in and of itself. Does anyone think that previously loyal Clintonites/now Obamites will stay loyal if the bloom starts to come visibly off the rose? I truly wonder how much uphill sledding those around Obama now are prepared to endure. I guess some, but not much.

Directionally, I think this is all fairly obvious, but what matters is magnitude, which I can't estimate. If Obama's stumbles continue and are big enough, the massive expansion of government that is disguised as economic stimulus could run aground. I think the markets have a slight sense of this and are perking up at the thought that we aren't necessarily going to ride a wave of populism to monstrous government intervention in the economy. Bottom line, investors think Obama will be capable of alot less damage than they had originally feared, and the market is reflecting this cautious optimism.