Did Our Enemies Hand bin Laden to Obama??
Enemies? Maybe. Follow along please.
No one will ever convince me that Obama is an ardent and committed terror warrior, nor will anyone ever convince me that he was somehow smarter and savvier in the prosecution of the GWOT. So the remaining possibilties are that he got lucky or that someone dropped a dime on bin Laden purposefully. Both are probable. After ten years, it is not inconceivable that AQ functionaries got lazy and/or some analyst slaving away in a cubicle at Langley had a breakthrough. But we should not discount the very real possibility that someone gave bin Laden up. The circumstances reveal and the evidence is starting to mount that it is likely certain the Pakistani authorities knew of OBL's whereabouts. The likelier that is, the likelier the thesis that a dime was dropped - they go hand in hand. Naturally, the logical basis of Pakistani protection is that there was value in protecting OBL. So either the value of protecting OBL ceased to exist or it was time to realize (monetize?) that value, convert it to something tangible. There are a host of possibilities, such as the stability of the Pakistani state and/or its finances - they could have simply given him up for money. Moving along the complexity continuum, Spengler offers up a tempting geo-political saga where the tectonic changes sweeping the Middle East mean the Saudis can no longer afford a modus vivendi with al Qaeda and chose to end AQ once and for all via the Americans. Another line of logic is to ask who benefits from this? As has been noted, Obama does. Could the dime have been dropped to help Obama? Who would want to help Obama? More specifically, who wants to see Obama win a second term? Our friends...like who...Egypt? Ha! It is our enemies who would love four more years of Obama - the Syrian regime is slaughtering its people in a fight for survival and dearly appreciates Obama's inattention; Iran enjoys Obama's fumbling, bumbling and generally flummoxed approach to their nuclear ambitions; the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas greatly appreciate the openning Obama gave them in Egypt now that Mubarak is gone; and, just about everybody likes Obama's hatred of Netanyahu and constant hectoring of Israel. Take your pick, all of these actors have reason to want Obama to stick around because his weak and naive foreign policy gives them room to maneuver, and nearly every one has ties to the global terrorist nexus. Is it outlandish to consider that a terror-linked government would give up an increasingly irrelevant figure, OBL, in exchange for a greater likelihood that a weak (and at times Muslim sympathizing) leader retains control of the world superpower's foreign policy? Ask yourself, if you were Iran or Syria, for instance, would you make that trade...? The more I think about it, I'd make that trade all day long...
No one will ever convince me that Obama is an ardent and committed terror warrior, nor will anyone ever convince me that he was somehow smarter and savvier in the prosecution of the GWOT. So the remaining possibilties are that he got lucky or that someone dropped a dime on bin Laden purposefully. Both are probable. After ten years, it is not inconceivable that AQ functionaries got lazy and/or some analyst slaving away in a cubicle at Langley had a breakthrough. But we should not discount the very real possibility that someone gave bin Laden up. The circumstances reveal and the evidence is starting to mount that it is likely certain the Pakistani authorities knew of OBL's whereabouts. The likelier that is, the likelier the thesis that a dime was dropped - they go hand in hand. Naturally, the logical basis of Pakistani protection is that there was value in protecting OBL. So either the value of protecting OBL ceased to exist or it was time to realize (monetize?) that value, convert it to something tangible. There are a host of possibilities, such as the stability of the Pakistani state and/or its finances - they could have simply given him up for money. Moving along the complexity continuum, Spengler offers up a tempting geo-political saga where the tectonic changes sweeping the Middle East mean the Saudis can no longer afford a modus vivendi with al Qaeda and chose to end AQ once and for all via the Americans. Another line of logic is to ask who benefits from this? As has been noted, Obama does. Could the dime have been dropped to help Obama? Who would want to help Obama? More specifically, who wants to see Obama win a second term? Our friends...like who...Egypt? Ha! It is our enemies who would love four more years of Obama - the Syrian regime is slaughtering its people in a fight for survival and dearly appreciates Obama's inattention; Iran enjoys Obama's fumbling, bumbling and generally flummoxed approach to their nuclear ambitions; the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas greatly appreciate the openning Obama gave them in Egypt now that Mubarak is gone; and, just about everybody likes Obama's hatred of Netanyahu and constant hectoring of Israel. Take your pick, all of these actors have reason to want Obama to stick around because his weak and naive foreign policy gives them room to maneuver, and nearly every one has ties to the global terrorist nexus. Is it outlandish to consider that a terror-linked government would give up an increasingly irrelevant figure, OBL, in exchange for a greater likelihood that a weak (and at times Muslim sympathizing) leader retains control of the world superpower's foreign policy? Ask yourself, if you were Iran or Syria, for instance, would you make that trade...? The more I think about it, I'd make that trade all day long...
posted by Donny Baseball at 6:01 PM
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