More CW, More Cold Showering

Well, here is another one of those "Obama will cruise to re-election" pieces. The central argument is twofold: 1) liberals are liberals and we could have unspeakable misery and they'd still vote for the guy, and 2) most Americans are still stupid and/or not engaged. I can't dispute #1 although I can tell you, only anecdotally though, that many mainstream liberals who voted for Obama are now quite embarrassed. I don't doubt the reflexivity of liberals but I sincerely doubt their passion going into 2012. The tsunami of enthusiasm will not be re-created. As for #2, I don't think the author quite gets it. People are paying attention and we have deep-seated structural problems economically and financially that I don't think Obama even has a superficial understanding of, and it shows.

And then there are events. Events, my boy, events. So, let me refer to you this again. Let me also add some color from just today's events. The SOTU was poorly received in terms of ratings and criticism. Even the AP came out and said the SOTU address was a melange of contradictions. The head Medicare actuary threw cold water on the central tenets of ObamaCare - reducing cost and expanding coverage. And something like 10 states are now dredging up an 18th century doctrine called nullification to combat ObamaCare as if plain old lawsuits weren't good enough, which more than half the states are pursuing. If that isn't the early innings of a full-blown constitutional crisis, I don't know what is. Social Security is officially broke and this guy is still talking about losers like high-speed rail and clean energy, as well as bizarro-world stuff like salmon, saccharin and Sputnik.

This is not just some devil-you-know calculation. The man has revealed himself as nothing of what people hoped and dreamed, but rather a complete pretender. Obama floundered on jobs for two years yet still strides to the podium to reassure America that jobs are his new priority. He engaged in ragingly partisan politics and rhetoric and now breezily calls for bi-partisanship. He talks so grandiloquently but puts forth such laughably puny ideas. At some point the schtick gets old, and it is damn old right about now. Maybe if times were better, Americans would tolerate a little disconnectedness, but times are not merely "not good," they are convulsingly uncertain and fraught with unease. Obama's election was historic because it was an historic reach, a gamble, electoral entrepreneurialism if you will. When you roll the dice and fail, as we have, you don't double down. The past is not the correct lens with which to analyze the re-election chances of Barack Obama, only present circumstances will do. You have to believe that the entire country has gone stark-raving mad - running around in underpants and suspenders screaming about the end of the world mad - to believe that Obama gets re-elected in a walk. On present course, it'll be a dogfight.